基于主成分分析-协整理论的土石坝安全监控模型研究  

Research of Safety Monitoring Model Based on Principal Component Analysis and Cointegration Theory

作　　者：周炜翔[1] 张慧莉[1] 陈航[1] 钟佩文 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《水力发电》2017年第5期108-111,共4页Water Power

摘　　要：结合某土石坝垂直位移监测资料,针对非平稳时间序列分析时可能产生的"伪回归"问题,采用主成分分析方法和协整理论建立土石坝安全监控模型,并对监测点的变形性态进行分析。结果表明,所建立的模型系数显著,意义明确,克服了自变量间的多重共线性以及非平稳时间序列分析时的"伪回归"问题,在监测时段内,监测点垂直位移时效基本稳定。Aiming at the problem of spurious regression when analyzing the non stationary time series, the safety monitoring model of earth-rockfill dam is established based on principal component analysis and cointegration theory to analyze the deformation behavior of monitoring stations combined with the vertical displacements monitoring data of an earth-rockfill dam. The result shows that the model has significant coefficient and definite meaning, and meanwhile, it can overcome the multi- eollinearity of independent variables and the problem of spurious regression in analyzing the non stationary time series. The vertical displacements of monitoring stations are stable during monitoring period.

关 键 词：伪回归 主成分分析 协整理论 多重共线性 非平稳时间序列 

分 类 号：TV641.10[水利工程—水利水电工程] TV698.1