经济新常态下货币政策中介目标的改进与评估  

Improvement and Evaluation of Intermediate Target of Monetary Policy under the New Normal Economy

作　　者：周国富[1] 宋保庆[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学统计系,天津300222 [2]中国人民银行石家庄中心支行,河北石家庄050000

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2017年第5期36-42,共7页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目<基于京津冀一体化的雾霾治理与产业关联统计研究>(15BTJ020)

摘　　要：货币政策实施是否有效,关键在于选择合适的中介目标。经济新常态下,传统的货币供应量指标由于缺乏对各层次货币资产流动性差异的考量,与实体经济指标的相关性不断减弱。基于消费理论,通过引入中国人民银行存贷款综合抽样利率,计量各层次货币资产流动性选择的机会成本,并借鉴Divisia指数构建方法,尝试编制中国Divisia货币供应量。评估结果显示:新的Divisia货币供应量对货币资产结构变动引起的流动性改变反应更加敏锐,且稳定性、可控性良好,可以作为经济新常态下货币政策中介目标的参考指标。The key to the implementation of monetary policy is to choose the appropriate monetary policy intermediary target. As the economy enters a new normal, the correlation between the traditional money supply index and real economic indicators has been decelerating without the considerations on liquidity differences among all levels of monetary assets. Based on consumption theory, this paper introduces the People ＇ s Bank of China Deposit and Loan Composite Sample Rate to measure the opportunity cost of the monetary assets, and uses the method of Divisia Index to construct the money supply of China. The evaluation results show that the new Divisia money supply is more responsive to the liquidity change caused by monetary assets structure alteration. Moreover, good stability and controllability can be regarded as the reference for the intermediary target of monetary policy under the iiew normal economy.

关 键 词：经济新常态 货币政策 Divisia货币总量 中介目标 评估 

分 类 号：F822.1[经济管理—财政学]