边坡安全系数与滑坡概率关系分析  

Relationship Between Slope Safety Factor and Landslide Probability

作　　者：饶运章[1,2] 张学焱 利坚[1] 李雪珍[1] 王丹[1] RAO Yun- zhang ZHANG Xue- yan LI Jian LI Xue- zhen WANG Dan(School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou 341000, China Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Mining Engineering,Jiangxi University of Science andTechnology,Ganzhou 341000, China)

机构地区：[1]江西理工大学资源与环境工程学院,江西赣州341000 [2]江西理工大学江西省矿业工程重点实验室,江西赣州341000

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2017年第5期63-67,共5页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：国家高新技术研究发展计划(863计划)项目(2012AA061901);2011年度江西省安全生产重大课题(JXAJ2011002);2015年江西理工大学校级学术学位研究生创新专项资金项目(XS201551);江西省研究生创新专项资金项目(YC2015-S307)

摘　　要：为了给安全系数和滑坡概率的相互转化提供理论依据,分析滑坡影响因素与安全系数、滑坡概率的函数关系,得出安全系数与滑坡概率之间的函数关系。采用极限平衡法分析滑坡影响因素与安全系数的函数表达式;应用逻辑回归模型分析滑坡影响因素与滑坡概率间的函数关系;结合赣南38个离子型稀土矿边坡实例,应用SPSS软件,求解各边坡的滑坡概率,并得出滑坡概率和安全系数的拟合函数。选取10个边坡实例,同时采用边坡安全系数工程规范对拟合函数进行检验,结果表明了函数关系的准确性。Slope safety factor and landslide probability can be reflected by landslide^ s influential factors. In this ar-ticle ,a function describing the relationship between safety factor and landslide probability was presented. The func-tion between safety factor and influential factors was analyzed using the l im it equilibrium method,and the relations between influential factors and landslide probability were then obtained using logistic regression model. The land-slide probability of 38 ionic-type rare-earth ore slope in south Jiangxi Province were obtained by using SPSS soft-ware, and the fitted relation between safety factor and landslide probability was hence deduced. The fitted function was verified correct by engineering specification.

关 键 词：滑坡概率 安全系数 滑坡影响因素 逻辑回归模型 SPSS 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]