浏阳河流域降水时空演变规律分析  

Analysis on spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of precipitation in Liuyang River basin

作　　者：于泽兴[1] 胡国华[1] 陈肖[1] 顾庆福[2] YU Zexing HU Guohua CHEN Xiao GU Qingfu(School of Hydraulic Engineering, Changsha University of Science ＆ Technology, Changsha 410114, China Hydrology ＆ Water Resources Bureau of Hunan Province, Changsha 410007, China)

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学水利工程学院,湖南长沙410114 [2]湖南省水文水资源勘测局,湖南长沙410007

出　　处：《人民长江》2017年第8期28-31,48,共5页Yangtze River

基　　金：湖南省重大水利科技项目(2013-243-2);湖南省研究生科研创新项目(CX2015B359)

摘　　要：通过线性回归、滑动平均、Mann-Kendall检验、累积距平联合滑动t检验和Morlet小波分析等方法,分析了浏阳河流域1969~2013年的年、汛期和非汛期降水的演变规律。结果表明:(1)45 a来,年、汛期降水量呈非显著性下降趋势,非汛期降水量呈非显著性上升趋势。(2)年降水量的空间分布存在不均衡性,降水量总体从东北部向西南部逐渐减少。(3)年、汛期降水量均在1992年发生显著性均值突变,非汛期降水量突变不显著。(4)年降水量均存在27 a左右主周期,汛期和非汛期降水量在时间尺度上的相位变化与年降水大体一致。研究结果可为浏阳河流域气候分析和气候预测提供参考。By using linear regression,moving average,Mann-Kendall test,accumulative anomaly combined moving t test,Morlet wavelet analysis method,et al.,the annual,flood seasonal and non-flood seasonal evolution characteristics of precipitation during 1969 ～ 2013 in Liuyang River basin were analyzed. The results indicated that：（1）The annual and flood seasonal precipitation presented a nonsignificant decreasing trend and the non-flood seasonal precipitation presented a nonsignificant increasing trend during the past 45 years;（2）There was an irregular spatial distribution of mean annual precipitation,which showed a decreasing trend from northeast to southwest;（3）An abrupt change of the annual and flood seasonal precipitation occurred in 1992,and the abrupt change of non-flood seasonal precipitation was not significant;（4）Annual precipitation had the main oscillation cycles of 27 years in common,and the phase change of precipitation in flood season and non-flood season were essentially consistent with those in annual on the time scale. The research results can provide reference for climate analysis and future weather forecasting in Liuyang River basin.

关 键 词：MANN-KENDALL检验 MORLET小波分析 累积距平联合滑动t检验 降水 浏阳河流域 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]