改进灰色模型在海上交通综合安全指数预测应用  

Improved Grey Model Applied in Maritime Traffic Safety Index Prediction

作　　者：陈昌源[1] 戴冉[1] 冯纪军[1] 岳兴旺[1] 张杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航海学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《中国航海》2017年第1期58-63,共6页Navigation of China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(61401057);交通运输部应用基础研究项目(2014329225010);马六甲和新加坡海峡超大型船舶航行风险分析及对策研究(01831508);海上交通安全风险研究(80714003)

摘　　要：为提高海上交通综合安全指数的预测精度,弥补传统预测方法的不足,构造一种改进的灰色预测模型。在对传统的灰色预测模型GM(1,1)的基本原理和预测精度进行阐述的基础上,引入弱化算子序列对灰色预测模型进行改进,设计一种改进的灰色预测模型。以2004—2013年海上交通综合安全指数4项指标历史数据为基础,进行传统灰色模型预测和改进灰色模型预测,并绘制出2种预测模型的实际值和预测值的拟合曲线。结果表明:改进灰色模型的预测精度和拟合曲线都比传统灰色模型要好,能真实反映海上交通综合安全指数的发展趋势,预测结果具有一定的可靠性和实用性。Addressing the inadequacy of traditional prediction methods, an improved grey prediction model is developed for better prediction precision of maritime traffic safety index. After looking at the basic principle and the prediction precision of the traditional grey prediction model, a weakening operator sequence is introduced into the grey prediction model GM （ 1, 1 ） to improve it. The traditional grey model and the improved gray model are respectively used to process the historical data during the period of from 2004 to 2013 and make predictions of the maritime traffic safety indexes. The predictions are compared with the actual values and the deviations are plotted. The study shows that the improved model reflects the future trend of the development of maritime traffic safety index with a better accuracy and smaller deviation than the traditional model.

关 键 词：海上交通综合指数 改进灰色模型 弱化算子 预测 精度 

分 类 号：U698[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]