经济新常态下理性预期通货膨胀与实际通货膨胀的联系及影响因素  

Relationship Between Rational Expectation Inflation and Real Inflation Based on the New Economic Norms and its Influencing Factors

作　　者：巴特尔[1,2] BA Te Er(Central University of Finance and Economics, Institute of Finance, Beijing 100081 ,China National University of the Inner Mongol of Economics ,Hohhot 010021 ,China)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学金融学院,北京100081 [2]内蒙古师范大学经济学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010021

出　　处：《郑州航空工业管理学院学报》2017年第2期22-31,共10页Journal of Zhengzhou University of Aeronautics

摘　　要：基于我国2010~2016年第二季度CPI数据,分析当前实际通货膨胀、经济及政策因素对预期通货膨胀形成的影响。研究发现,当前我国实际通货膨胀对预期通货膨胀的影响较小,经济、政策因素对预期通货膨胀形成的影响各不相同。在短期内,政策因素对预期通货膨胀的影响非常明显,但在长期内,预期通货膨胀的形成主要受经济因素影响。运用计量软件,建立实证模型,通过格兰杰、KMO及Barelett等方法检验实证结果,最后对经济转型和控制通货膨胀预期提出了相应的对策建议。Based on Chinaese CPI data in the second quarter of 2010 - 2016, the impact of current re- al inflation, economic and policy factors on the formation of expected inflation analyzed. The study finds that the actual inflation has little effect on the expected inflation. The impact of economic and policy factors on the expected inflation is different. In the short term, the impact of policy factors on the expected inflation is very obvious, but in the long term, the expected formation of inflation is mainly affected by economic factors. The empirical model is established by using the measurement software, and the empirical results are tested by Granger, KMO and barelett. Finally, some counter- measures and suggestions are put forward for the economic transformation and the control of inflation expectation.

关 键 词：理性预期 通货膨胀 实证分析 政策调整 

分 类 号：F820.5[经济管理—财政学]