发电形式的竞争趋势与替代时间研究  

Investigations on competition tendency and substitution time of power generation form

作　　者：杨倩鹏[1,2] 林伟杰 王月明[2] 何雅玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学能源与动力工程学院,陕西西安710049 [2]西安热工研究院有限公司,陕西西安710054 [3]中国华能集团香港有限公司,香港999077

出　　处：《热力发电》2017年第5期1-7,共7页Thermal Power Generation

基　　金：2016年陕西省博士后科研项目;西安热工研究院研究开发基金项目(MB-16-TYK01)~~

摘　　要：未来我国能源消费总量将逐步增加,同时面临电气化水平提高和资源环境变化两大趋势。到2050年,我国发电产业将保持快速发展态势,在资源、环境和社会等因素影响下,将由传统能源发电向新型能源发电转型升级。本文通过对比传统能源发电形式与新型能源发电形式的技术指标、经济指标和其他指标,分析了不同发电形式之间的竞争趋势;探讨了新型能源发电对传统能源发电的替代定义和整体替代趋势,并以燃煤发电为例,对替代范围内的新型能源发电形式的替代潜力以及不同情景下的替代时间点进行了分析讨论;提出了在替代趋势下发电领域的技术研究和产业应用的发展战略,可为我国"十三五"时期和未来发电行业的发展方向提供参考。The total energy consumption in China will continually increase in the future, facing two major trends including improving electrification level and changing in resources and environment. By the year of 2050, the power generation industry in China will maintain fast developing status, transforming and upgrading from the conventional energy power generation to new energy power generation, under the influences of resources, environments and the society. By comparing the technical specifications, economic indicators and other factors of the conventional energy power generation forms with that of the new energy power generation forms, the competition trends among different power generation forms were analyzed. The definition of substitution and the overall substitution trend between the conventional energy power generation and the new energy power generation were discussed. Taking coal-fired power generation as the example, the substitution potentials of the new energy power generation forms in the substitution range and the substitution time in different scenarios were discussed. The development strategies of technology research and industry application in power generation field under the substitution trend were put forward, which can provide references for development direction of power generation industry in China during the 13th Five-Year Plan period and further future.

关 键 词：传统能源发电 新型能源发电 技术经济分析 替代趋势 替代时间 发电形式 发展战略 

分 类 号：TK9[动力工程及工程热物理]