保险消费、区域金融差异与经济增长的动态关系研究——基于非线性面板模型的实证分析  

The Relationship among Insurance Consumption,Regional Financial Difference and Economic Growth——Based on nonlinear dynamic panel model empirical analsis

作　　者：徐阳[1] 屈广玉 XU Yang QU Guangyu(Beijing Normal University ,School of Economics and Resource Management, Beijing 100875 Wuhan University, school of Economics and management, Hubei Wuhan 430072)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学经济与资源管理研究院,北京100875 [2]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《保险研究》2017年第3期39-55,共17页Insurance Studies

摘　　要：本文首次采用最新的时变面板平滑转换回归模型(TV-PSTR),在非线性的框架下对我国30个省份(地区)的2000-2015年保险发展与经济增长关系展开深入研究。我们构建包括金融系统因素和宏观经济基本面因素的非线性模型,重点考察金融深化过程中,在金融系统变化情况下,保险市场发展对经济增长的渐进影响效应及传递路径。研究发现,金融发展水平越高,区域金融系统的资金配置效率和投资效率越有效,保险消费对经济增长具有强拉动效应,其中寿险的融资功能比财险经济补偿功能更具经济增长效应;地区金融风险程度增高,会大幅度提高金融系统坏账率和投资风险,弱化财险经济补偿功能对实体经济正效应,同时阻碍寿险储蓄资金对实体经济的转换投资,进而挤占部分投资与消费,对经济增长形成负效应。此外,研究发现2008年以后,随着金融系统风险减低,金融发展扩大,保险发展对经济增长逐渐呈现正效应。但近年不良贷款率上升,加之金融规模扩张过快造成严重泡沫,需要防范金融系统逆转对经济造成负面冲击。最后在此基础上,我们提出了现阶段深化金融改革与管控金融风险的若干建议。This paper firstly used the latest dynamic panel smooth transition regression model （TV-PSTR）to investigate the relationship between insurance and economic growth for thirty provinves （regions） during 2000 -2015 under a nonlinear framework . We constructed a nonlinear model introducing financial system and macroeconomic fundamental factors, and then analysed the insurance market development＇ s progressive effects to economic growth and the transmission path during the evolution of the financial system. The results showed that the more efficient of the financial system, the more efficient for capital allocation and investment in the regional financial system. As a re- sult, insurance consumption would have a strong pulling effect on economic growth, with life insurance ＇ s capital raising function having a stronger effect to economic growth than the finanical compensation function of property insurance. A higher level of regional financial risk would heighten financial defaults and investment risk significantly, and then weakened property insurance＇ s economic compensation function on the real economy. At the same time, it would prevent life insurance capital from being invested into the real economy, thus squeezing out investment and consumption, and causing negative effects on economic growth. In addition, the study found that along with the alleviation of financial system risks and the expansion of financial development since 2008, insurance development showed a positive effect on economic growth. But in recent years, rising non-performing loans plus the serious bubble caused by rapid financial scale expansion, we need to guard against the financial system to reverse, causing negative impacts on the economy. At last this paper put forward some policy enlightenment on deepening financial reform and controlling financial risks.

关 键 词：保险发展 金融深化 经济增长 时变面板平滑转换回归模型 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]