新常态下经济增长和产业结构升级对税收增长的动态影响  

Dynamic Impact of Economic Growth and Industrial Structure Upgrading on Tax Revenue Increase in the New Normal

作　　者：林树山 李普亮[2] Lin Shu-shan Li Pu-liang(Huizhou Municipal Local Taxation Bureau, Huizhou 516008, China Department of Economics and Management, Huizhou University, Huizhou 516007, China)

机构地区：[1]惠州市国家税务局,广东惠州516008 [2]惠州学院经济管理系,广东惠州516007

出　　处：《税务与经济》2017年第3期75-82,共8页Taxation and Economy

基　　金：广东省国税局税收科研项目"新常态下经济增长和产业结构升级对税收增长的动态影响研究"(2016年度);广东省高等学校优秀青年教师培养计划项目"税收持续增长背景下财政民生支出的产业结构调整效应研究"(项目编号:HZXY201403);广东省自然科学基金自由申请项目"税收和财政民生支出对城镇居民消费结构升级的影响研究"(项目编号:2015A030313676)

摘　　要：在经济新常态下,经济增长率和税收增长率双双下调,产业结构调整的进程却逆势加快。基于1978~2015年的宏观统计数据,运用VAR模型实证检验经济增长、产业结构升级对税收增长的动态影响。研究发现,经济增长率、第三产业增加值占GDP比重和税收收入增长率三个变量存在长期均衡关系;其中,经济增长率与税收收入增长率呈现显著的正相关,第三产业增加值占GDP比重与税收收入增长率呈现负相关,但统计上并不显著。应以发展实体经济为突破口,保持经济中高速增长;持之以恒地推进产业结构优化升级,不断培育新的税收增长点;提高税收征管水平,确保应收尽收。In the economic new normal, the economic growth rate and the tax revenue growth rate is going down. On the contrary, the process of industrial restructuring is moving up. Based on the macroscopic statistical data from 1978 to 2015, the VAR model is applied in this paper to analyze the dynamic impact of economic growth and industrial structure upgrading on tax revenue growth. The study shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among the economic growth rate, the proportion of tertiary industry increased value in GDP and the tax revenue growth rate. Meanwhile, the economic rate and the tax revenue growth rate show a significant positive correlation. The proportion of tertiary industry increased value in GDP and the tax revenue growth rate is negatively correlated, which is not significant according to the statistics. Therefore, it is necessary to develop re- al economy and target medium-high economic growth. It is still essential to promote the optimization and upgra- ding of the industrial structure constantly and cultivate new tax revenue growth. Last but not least, it is still vital to improve the level of tax collection and management to ensure full collection of receivables.

关 键 词：经济新常态 经济增长 税收增长 产业结构 税收征管水平 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F810.42[经济管理—财政学]