新常态下北京经济增长潜力研究  

Research on Beijing's Economic Growth Potential under the New Normal

作　　者：昌忠泽[1] 毛培[1] CHANG Zhong-ze MAO Pei(Institute of Finance and Economics ,College of Economics at Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100081 , China)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学财经研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《北京联合大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2017年第2期76-84,共9页Journal of Beijing Union University(Humanities and Social Sciences)

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"中国经济发展新常态的内涵;特征及其演变逻辑研究"(项目编号:15JZD011)

摘　　要：新常态下北京经济发展呈现出中高速增长、京津冀协同发展、经济结构不断优化等趋势性特征。从"三驾马车"角度分析要素投入对北京市经济增长的贡献率,可以看到,消费和投资对北京GDP增长的贡献率一直居于主导地位,出口量呈稳步上升趋势,对北京经济稳步发展起到了积极作用。从消费、投资和净出口角度分析新常态下北京经济增长潜力的制约因素,在此基础上利用生产函数估测未来北京市的潜在增长率水平。结果显示,北京市潜在经济增长率在未来总体呈现下降趋势,并且与以往相比将保持在一个较低的水平上。以上述研究为基础,提出了相关政策建议:充分发挥消费的基础作用,向消费创新和消费热点要潜力;改善投资结构,挖掘投资潜力;培育外贸竞争优势,促进对外贸易发展。Under medium and high the new normal, Beijing economic development has shown some trend characteristics such as speed growth, Jing Jin Ji collaborative development, and continuous optimization of economic structure. This paper first analyzes the contribution rate of input factors to Beijing economic growth from the angle of ＂three carriages＂, the analysis shows that consumption and investment of Beijing＇ s GDP growth rate has been dominant, exports showed a steady upward trend, played a positive role in the steady development of Beijing economy. Then this paper analyzes some restraining factors of Beijing economic growth potential, forecasts the potential growth rate of Beijing, the results show that the potential growth rate of Beijing in the future will remain at a low level compared with the past. And then, based on the above research, this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions： to play a fundamental role in consumption, to improve the investment structure and to cultivate foreign trade competitive advantage.

关 键 词：新常态 北京经济增长 消费 投资 

分 类 号：F127.1[经济管理—世界经济]