新疆维吾尔自治区2007-2015年HIV/AIDS病例空间自相关分析  

Analysis of spatial autocorrelation of HIV/AIDS in Xinjiang,2007-2015

作　　者：热伊拜.亚迪佧尔 陈晶[2] 杨建东[1] 阿迪拉.苏力旦 地力夏提.亚克甫 Reyibai · Yadikaer Chen Jing Yang Jiandong Adila · Sulidan Dilixiati · Yakepu(Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830011 , China Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Center for Disease Control and Prevention Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Health and Family Planning Commission)

机构地区：[1]新疆医科大学公共卫生学院流行病与统计教研室,乌鲁木齐830011 [2]新疆维吾尔自治区疾病预防控制中心,乌鲁木齐830001 [3]新疆维吾尔自治区卫生和计划生育委员会,乌鲁木齐830001

出　　处：《中国艾滋病性病》2017年第4期292-295,共4页Chinese Journal of Aids & STD

摘　　要：目的探讨和分析新疆维吾尔自治区(简称全区)艾滋病病毒(HIV)感染者/艾滋病(AIDS)病例(简称HIV/AIDS病例)报告率的空间分布特征和空间自相关关系,及其热点区域随时间的变化趋势,为全区AIDS针对性防控措施的制定和防控资源的优化配置提供参考依据。方法以县市为尺度,对全区2007-2015年HIV/AIDS病人的年报告率应用地理信息系统(Arc GIS)10.2绘制疾病地图,并进行全局及局域空间自相关分析。结果 2007-2015年,历年全局Moran’s I值均>0,最小Z值为2.487,均有统计学意义(P<0.05),提示全区HIV/AIDS病人空间自相关为正相关,存在聚集性。局部空间自相关分析显示,聚集类型以"高-高"、"低-低"聚集类型为主,随时间推移高-高聚集区域面积扩大,并且由北向南转移域。结论空间自相关分析可以较好地揭示全区HIV/AIDS病人的空间聚集性,防止高-高聚集区域的扩大和AIDS的蔓延。Objective To explore and analyze the spatial distribution features and spatial autocorrelation of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome（HIV/AIDS） in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region （Xinjiang） from 2007 to 2015, and to discuss the variation with time of the HIV/AIDS cases clustering areas. Methods Arc GIS（Geographie Information System） 10.2 was used to map the notation incidence, to identify the spatial clusters, and to analyze the globe and local spatial autoeorrelation of HIV/AIDS at county level from 2007 to 2015 in Xinjiang. Results The annual global Moran＇s I indexes from 2007 to 2015 were all higher than 0,and the minimum Z-value was 2. 487 （all P〈0. 05）, indicating that positive spatial autocorrelation existed in HIV/AIDS and there were clusters of HIV/AIDS in Xinjiang. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed that the main cluster types were H-H and L-L. Cluster regions expanded from the northern to southern Xinjiang with time. Conclusion Spatial autocorrelation and distribution can be applied to reveal the spatial clusters of HIV/AIDS in Xinjiang. Health departments should strengthen HIV/AIDS prevention and control in the areas with spatial clustering of the epidemic.

关 键 词：艾滋病 地理信息系统(GIS) 空间分布 空间自相关 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学] R373.9[医药卫生—临床医学]