中国货币政策对经贸关联国货币政策的外溢影响研究--基于“一带一路”相关国的证据  

Spillover of China's Monetary Policy to Intermediate Targets of Related Countries——Evidence from Countries in the Belt and Road Initiatives Area

作　　者：黄宪[1,2] 白德龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学金融系 [2]武汉大学金融发展与政策研究中心

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2017年第5期15-24,共10页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“经济发展新常态下我国货币政策体系建设研究”(15JZD013)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文研究在人民币国际化进程中,中国货币政策对经贸关联国的外溢效应。本研究使用高频事件研究法,测度和分析了中国国内货币政策的变动对50多个"一带一路"相关国家和地区的汇率、短期利率、长期利率等货币政策中介目标的影响。实证研究的结果表明:(1)中国货币当局的存款基准利率和法定存款准金率公告对经贸关联国的利率存在正向的溢出效应,而对它们的汇率则存在反向的溢出效应;(2)这种溢出效应具有显著的区域差异性,对与中国经贸联系最为紧密的亚洲国家和地区的影响最大;(3)金融联系和贸易联系是中国货币政策效应外溢的重要渠道,实施"一带一路"战略之后,随着中国与"一带一路"国家经贸关系的不断加强,中国货币政策外溢效应的影响范围和程度都显著提升。本研究的结论为中国作为负责任大国的货币政策制定提供了经验依据。In this paper, we study the monetary policy spillover effects of China on monetary policy of related countries as the RMB internationalization accelerated. Based on high-frequency event study, this paper uses the data of more than 50 countries in the Belt and Road Initiatives area to analyze the impact of China＇s monetary policy on those countries＂ monetary policy intermediate targets. The result shows that China＇s monetary policy has a significant spillover effect on the exchange rates （negative） and interest rates （positive） of these countries. The finding suggests that the spillover effects of China＇s monetary policy on monetary policy of those economies are substantial, especially for the Asian region due to their tight financial and trade linkages with China. As the financial and trade linkage rise, the degree and scale of China＇s monetary policy spillover effects exhibit an enhanced trend. Furthermore, the finding has important policy meaning.

关 键 词：货币政策溢出效应 中介目标 金融和贸易关联度“一带一路” 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]