基于大面积网格法的商场疏散时间预测  

Prediction of mall evacuation time based on large grid method

作　　者：郑丹[1] 曾庆福[1] 贾进章[1] 洪林[1] 马驰[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁工程技术大学安全科学与工程学院,阜新123000

出　　处：《火灾科学》2017年第1期43-48,共6页Fire Safety Science

基　　金：辽宁省高等学校杰出青年学者成长计划基金项目(LJQ2011028)

摘　　要：为了准确预测商场人员疏散时间,文中结合群集流动规律及离散法建立新的大面积网格算法,将时间离散为微小单元Δt,空间离散为大面积网格,利用人员流动速度—密度公式,计算每一Δt时间内网格中人员流动速度,迭代累计各单元时间得到疏散时间。以某商场人员疏散演练为例进行分析,结果表明,大面积网格算法预测的人员疏散时间与实际疏散演习时间基本吻合,其相对误差为3.4%,预测精确度较高。In order to accurately predict the mall evacuation time, in this paper, a new large-scale grid method was established based on the cluster flow law and discrete method. The method distracts the time into units At and divides the space into large- scale grids. By using mobility rate-density formula, the grid mobility speed in At time is calculated. Thus, the evacuation time is obtained by using iterative method with cumulation of the time of all units. By taking a mall evacuation drills for example, the results showed that the time of evacuation drills predicted by the large-scale grid model agrees well with actual evacuation time, with relative error of 3.4%.

关 键 词：大面积网格 人员密度 人员流动速度 疏散时间预测 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学] X915.5