考虑心理潜变量的专车出行选择行为分析  

Analysis of the Choice Behavior Towards Tailored Taxi-service Incorporating Psychological Latent Variables

作　　者：李军[1] 陈雅[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学智能交通研究中心广东省智能交通系统重点实验室,广州510006

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2017年第11期322-327,共6页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：广东省科技计划项目(2015B010110005)资助

摘　　要：提出了考虑心理潜变量的选择模型来分析出行者的专车选择行为。首先构建了多指标多原因模型以描述个体社会经济学属性与潜在态度变量的关系;继而结合二项Logit模型分析出行方式属性、个体社会经济学属性及潜在态度对出行者专车选择的影响;并利用潜分类模型对出行者进行分类分析。以广州市为例,发现年龄、性别、教育水平及收入水平对态度变量的构成影响较大,安全意识、服务质量及舒适性、忠诚度也是影响选择的重要因素;通过潜分类发现出行者可分为费用敏感型、舒适享受型和中立型3个典型群体,比例分别为61.6%、21.8%、16.6%,显示出明显的两极分化趋势。A choice model with the consideration of psychological latent variables is proposed in order to explore the travelers’mode choice behavior towards tailored taxi- service. Firstly, a multiple indicators multiple causes model is constructed to describe the individuals socioeconomic features and latent attitudes; then a binary logit model incorporating latent variables is utilized to analyze the effect of alternative attributes, individual’s socioeconomic features and latent attitudes on the choice behavior towards tailored taxi- service. At last, a latent class model is established to identify the classes of the travelers. Based on the survey data conducted in Guangzhou, it is found that age, gender, degree of education and income have an significant impact on attitude variable formation, safety awareness,recognition degree of service quality and comfort and loyalty index are important impact factors of mode choice as well. Three classes of the consumers are obtained by the latent class model, namely, cost sensitive class, enjoyment oriented class and neutral class, which account for 61.6 % , 21.8 % and 16.6% respectively, indicating that the users are polarized.

关 键 词：交通工程 出行选择行为 心理潜变量 多指标多原因模型 潜分类模型 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]