计及风电预测可靠性的含风电电力系统优化调度模型  

Optimized Dispatching Model for Power System with Wind Power Considering Wind Power Forecasting Reliability

作　　者：王敏[1] 许建[1] 潘永春[2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学能源与电气学院,江苏南京211100 [2]国网浙江省电力公司舟山供电公司,浙江舟山316000

出　　处：《广东电力》2017年第4期43-49,共7页Guangdong Electric Power

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2012B05914)

摘　　要：针对风电随机性对电力系统安全、经济运行的影响,在考虑风电预测可靠性的基础上,建立含风电的电力系统优化调度模型。将实际风电出力看作随机变量,并通过混合Copula函数对历史风电场出力及其对应预测值建立相关性模型;在得到预测出力后,通过相关性模型获得风电实际出力分布概率;采用机会约束规划建立含风电的电力系统经济调度模型,并在保证系统可靠性的条件下优化风电计划出力。最后通过改进粒子群优化算法求解模型,结果表明该模型和算法可行且有效。In allusion to influence of wind power randomon safe and economic operation of the tablishes an optimized dispatching model for the power system with wind power on the basis of considering wind power fore-casting reliability. It regards actual wind power output as random variable and makes relevance model for historical windpower filed output and its corresponding forecasting value by means of mixed Copula function. After gettingput , it obtains actual output distribution probability of wind power by the relevance modd. By gramming ,it establishes an economic dispatching model for the power system with wind power which can optimize scheduled output of wind power on the premise of ensuring system reliability. Finally, it solves the swarm optimization algorithm and proves feasibility and validity of this model and algorithm.

关 键 词：混合Copula函数 联合概率模型 机会约束规划 动态经济调度 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TM614