考虑多角度效用的应急案例调整方法  

Emergency alternative adaptation method with considering multi-angle utility

作　　者：张恺[1] 王应明[2] 

机构地区：[1]福建船政交通职业学院信息工程系,福建福州350007 [2]福州大学决策科学研究所,福建福州350116

出　　处：《浙江大学学报（理学版）》2017年第3期314-321,共8页Journal of Zhejiang University（Science Edition）

基　　金：国家杰出青年科学基金资助(70925004);福建省交通运输厅科技发展项目(201319)

摘　　要：针对提高应急方案调整精确度的问题,提出了一种基于多角度的应急案例调整方法.基于3种相似度计算方法得到案例的综合相似度,通过灰色关联度计算方法得到问题与方案间的案例关联度;并从综合相似度、灰关联度以及案例实施效果三方面确定相似历史案例集及其权重;再运用证据推理对相似历史案例的方案进行集结,得到目标案例的调整方案.最后,通过算例说明方法的可行性和有效性.To improve the pertinence of the emergency plan,a method for plan adaptation based on those of similar emergency cases from multiple views is proposed.The comprehensive similarity between the current case and a candidate is calculated by three similarity computation methods while the case correlation degree is evaluated by the grey correlation method.Then,the similar case set and the associated weights are determined according to the comprehensive similarity,grey correlation degree and the case implementation effect of each candidate.Finally,the evidence reasoning is adopted to integrate the emergency plans of these similar cases to get the adaptive plan.A case is given to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.

关 键 词：突发事件 案例调整 证据推理 混合权重 

分 类 号：TP181[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]