朝鲜人口统计数据空间化模拟及影响因子分析  

Spatial Simulation and Influence Factors Detection of Population Density in North Korea

作　　者：史婷婷[1,2] 杨晓梅[1,3] 蓝荣钦[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国中医科学院中药资源中心,北京100700 [3]江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,江苏南京210023 [4]信息工程大学,河南郑州450001

出　　处：《测绘科学技术学报》2017年第1期79-84,共6页Journal of Geomatics Science and Technology

基　　金：国家863计划项目(2012AA121201;2013AA122901);国家科技支撑计划项目(2014BAL01B01)

摘　　要：朝鲜人口统计数据空间化是解决朝鲜统计数据与自然要素数据融合分析的重要途径。基于朝鲜市郡级人口普查数据,将GIS空间分析技术与统计学方法相结合,分析了朝鲜人口密度与空间因子的关系,采用多元回归的方法建立了朝鲜人口密度空间化模型,在GIS平台中实现了朝鲜人口密度的空间格网化模拟,并利用地理探测器对影响朝鲜人口密度空间分布因素的决定力进行了有效探测。结果表明,多元回归模型拟合精度达到0.769,生成的栅格人口密度数据与朝鲜三级行政区人口统计数据保持一致。同时,影响该地区人口密度的因子依次为道路网密度、居民点密度、居民地指数、海拔、坡度和耕地指数。Spatialization of North Korean demographic data is an important way to solve the fusion analysis of North Korea＆#39;s statistical data and natural elements.Based on the population census data of city-county level in the North Korea,the relationship between population density and spatial factors was firstly analyzed,and a spatial model of population density was established by means of multiple variables regression analysis and GIS technique,and then a rasterized population density map for North Korea was calculated.The geographical detector tool was used to analyze the determinant of population density.The result shows that the correlation coefficient between population density and spatial factors is 0.769.The resulting grid population density data is consistent with North Korea demographic data and the correlation is satisfied.Meantime,the decision forces of potential determinants are road network density,residential density,residential index,elevation,slope and farmland index.

关 键 词：人口密度 空间模拟 格网化 地理探测器 朝鲜 

分 类 号：P208[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程] K901.3[天文地球—测绘科学与技术]