农产品金融化对玉米价格波动的影响——基于SVAR模型的实证研究  

Impact of Financialization of Agricultural Products on Corn Price Wave——based on Empirical Study of SVAR Model

作　　者：徐光顺[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川农业大学经济学院,四川成都611130

出　　处：《价格月刊》2017年第5期29-34,共6页

基　　金：四川省科技支撑计划项目"四川省新农村建设科技集成研究与示范"(编号:2015NZ0105)

摘　　要：供求因素对玉米价格的影响已很清楚,但金融因素和经济因素的作用有待进一步探索。利用2009年1月~2015年10月的月度数据,借助SVAR模型,分析了国内外金融因素对我国玉米现货价格的影响。分析结果表明:在国内玉米供求变化不大的情况下,其价格金融化特征明显,价格波动周期变短、波动幅度增大;人民币实际汇率对其价格的冲击最大,消费者价格指数次之,其他金融因素的影响较小。The impact of demand and supply factor on corn price has been clear, but the impact of financial factor and e- conomic factor have to be further studied. By using the monthly data within 2009.1-2015.10, this paper analyzes the impact of domestic and foreign financial factors on China＇s corn spot price by SVAR model. The results show that the price finan- cialization feature is significant under the situation of little changed domestic demand and supply of corn, the price wave period is shortened, and the wave is rising; the actual RMB exchange rate has the largest impact on the price, and the consumer price index has the second largest impact, while the impact from the other financial factors are lower.

关 键 词：金融化 玉米价格 价格波动 结构向量自回归模型 

分 类 号：F304.2[经济管理—产业经济]