基于置信区间估计及储能装置优化配置的风电场可靠出力研究  

Reliable power output based on confidence interval estimation and optimal ESS configuration of wind farm

作　　者：叶瑞丽 郭志忠[1] 刘瑞叶[1] 刘建楠[2] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学电气工程及自动化学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150001 [2]国家电网公司交流建设分公司,北京100052

出　　处：《电力自动化设备》2017年第5期85-91,共7页Electric Power Automation Equipment

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题(2015BAA01B00)~~

摘　　要：基于对风电功率预测误差概率分布的分析,采用非参数核密度估计对风电功率预测误差进行置信区间估计,给出风电场在某一置信度条件下实际出力的波动区间。提出基于置信区间估计和储能装置优化配置的风电场可靠出力思想,给出以不同置信度实现风电功率可靠出力时储能装置额定功率和额定容量的确定方法,并对可靠出力思想进行成本和效益分析。算例验证了所提方法的正确性。The probability distribution of WPPE（Wind Power Prediction Error） is analyzed,based on which, the non-parametric kernel density estimation is adopted to obtain the confidence interval of WPPE for providing the fluctuation range of real power output of wind farm at a certain confidence degree. A concept of reliable power output based on the confidence interval estimation and optimal ESS（Energy Storage System） configuration of wind farm is put forward and a method for determining the rated power and capacity of ESS to ensure the reliable wind-power output at different confidence degrees is given. The cost and benefit of the proposed concept are analyzed and the correctness of the proposed method is verified by case study.

关 键 词：风电场 风电功率预测误差 非参数核密度估计 置信区间 储能 可靠出力 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]