中美煤矿安全生产水平对等比较与预测  

Comparison and Forecast of Coal Mine Safety Production Level in China and America

作　　者：聂百胜[1,2] 黄鑫[1,2] 薛斐[1,2] 孟洋洋[1,2] 陈江[3] 刘晓兵[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)资源与安全工程学院,北京100083 [2]中国矿业大学(北京)煤炭资源与安全开采国家重点实验室,北京100083 [3]国家安全生产监督管理总局国际交流合作中心,北京100713

出　　处：《煤矿安全》2017年第4期234-237,共4页Safety in Coal Mines

基　　金：中央高校基本科研专项资金资助项目(2009kz03)

摘　　要：为了从发展的角度探究中国煤炭安全生产现状所处阶段,并对未来发展趋势进行整体把握,以持续地提高我国煤矿安全生产水平;通过采用对等点、对等变化率的对比方法从历史发展的角度对中美煤炭安全生产状况进行对比;采用对等变化率和拟合指数函数预测的方法对中国煤矿未来发展趋势和百万吨死亡率进行了预测。结果表明:我国煤矿目前安全生产发展水平与美国20世纪70年代接近,变化率与美国20世纪40年代至50年代大致相同,未来我国煤矿安全生产水平提高的速度将逐步减缓,2020年我国百万吨死亡率预计为0.04~0.06。In order to explore the stage of Chinese coal production safety situation from the perspective of development, overallgrasp the future development trend, and continuously improve the coal mine safety production level in China. The comparisonmethod of the peer point and the peer change rate was used to compare the coal safety production situation of China and Americafrom the perspective of historical development. The method of peer change rate and fitting exponential function prediction was usedto forecast the future development trend and million tons mortality of Chinese coal mine. The results show that the current develop-ment level of Chinese coal mine safety production is close to that of the United States in 1970s, and the change rate is roughlythe same as that of the United States from 1940s to 1950s; in future, the improvement speed of Chinese coal mine safety produc-tion level will gradually slow down, and the million tons mortality will be from 0.04 to 0.06 in 2020.

关 键 词：煤矿安全 安全生产状况 煤炭产量 百万吨死亡率 对等点 变化率 

分 类 号：TD79[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]