高技术产业集群发展动态测度研究——基于EM算法的因子分析模型  

A Study on Dynamic Measurement of High-tech Industrial Cluster Development——The Factor Analysis Model Based on EM Algorithm

作　　者：卜洪运[1] 陶玲玲[1] 赵琳皓 

机构地区：[1]燕山大学经济管理学院,河北秦皇岛066004

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2017年第5期115-120,共6页East China Economic Management

基　　金：河北省社会科学基金项目一般项目(HB16YJ091);河北省社会科学发展研究课题(201603020239)

摘　　要：文章基于波特模型构建高技术产业集群发展的测度指标体系,通过对因子分析法中因子载荷矩阵的估计方法进行改进,选取计算结果具有很好稳定性的EM算法进行估计,进而得到综合因子得分,并通过矩阵最大方差旋转找出潜在因子。对2000-2014年京津冀高技术产业集群发展水平分别进行实证检验。结果发现,北京和河北在这十五年内高技术产业集群发展总体上呈现持续增长趋势,天津在2000-2010年间总体上持续增长,之后出现急速下降,近几年发展趋于平稳。Based on the Porter Model, this paper constructs a measurement index system of high-tech industrial cluster development. Then the paper, through the improvement of estimation method for factor loading matrix in factor analysis method, selects the EM algo- rithm to make estimation, which the calculation results have good stability, gains the comprehensive factor score, and finds out the poten- tial factors by the maximum variance rotation of the matrix. The paper also carries out empirical tests on the development levels of high- tech industrial cluster in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2000 to 2014 respectively. The results show that the development levels of high-tech industrial cluster in Beijing and Hebei show a sustained growth trend over the past 15 years, whereas the development level of high-tech industrial cluster in Tianjin presents a continued growth in general from 2000 to 2010, then a sharp decline, and tends to be a steady development in recent years.

关 键 词：高技术产业集群发展 因子载荷矩阵 潜在因子 京津冀 

分 类 号：F263[经济管理—国民经济]