基于贝叶斯网络的城市居民住房需求偏好研究——以天津市为例  

Study on the Housing Demand Preference Based on Bayesian Network: A Case Study of Tianjin

作　　者：王营营[1,2] 王振坡[1] 范晓莉[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]天津城建大学经济与管理学院,天津300384 [2]天津城建大学京津冀协同发展研究中心,天津300384

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2017年第4期100-110,共11页Urban Development Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"新型城镇化进程中我国城市交通拥堵的评估体系;治理模式与政策组合研究"(14BJY043);国家社科基金项目"新型城镇化进程中我国城镇规模分布及其演进机理研究"(13BJY054);"十二五"天津市高等学校创新团队培养计划"新型城镇化与城市可持续发展"(TD12-5063)

摘　　要：基于《2016年天津市交通与住房调查问卷》数据,构建贝叶斯网络模型,比较分析不同社会群体的住房需求偏好,结果显示:年龄、学历及收入等因素与居民住房需求偏好显著相关;居民居住区位选择时关注的公共服务配套受年龄、婚姻状况、有无中小学生等因素影响;无住房公积金、非本地户籍人口通常选择租房,并且在城市居住时间越长其购房意愿越强烈;租房或拥有保障性住房家庭的居住面积普遍小于拥有商品房的家庭。提出应加大对居民住房消费金融支持力度、完善城市公共服务供给模式以及有序扩大住房保障覆盖范围等相关对策建议,为城市住房有效供给提供决策依据。The study on the basis of the questionnaire survey of Tianjin Traffic and Housing Survey Questionnaire 2016 and constructing the Bayesian network, this paper analyzes the housing demand preference among different social groups. The empirical results are as follows： Age, education and income have the significant impact on housing preference. The choice of the public service in the residential location choice is affected by age, marital status, and whether there are primary and secondary school students. The people who have no housing fund and non-resident are usually renting houses, and over time, non-urban residents are more willing to buy the house. The living space of rental housing or social housing is generally less than the commercial housing. We should increase the financial support for the residents of housing consumption, focus on vulnerable groups housing demand and improve the supply model of urban public service.

关 键 词：问卷调查 住房需求偏好 贝叶斯网络 有效供给 

分 类 号：F293.35[经济管理—国民经济]