棕榈油供给冲击与国内植物油价格波动的动态关系分析  

Dynamic relationship analysis between palm oil supply shocks and domestic vegetable oil prices volatility

作　　者：刘锐金[1] 王成丽[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国热带农业科学院橡胶研究所,海南儋州571737 [2]中国热带农业科学院科技信息研究所,海南儋州571737

出　　处：《南方农业学报》2017年第4期739-747,共9页Journal of Southern Agriculture

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(11CJY064)

摘　　要：【目的】分析棕榈油供给量与国内主要植物油价格的互动关系,以及对于来自价格正、负向冲击下棕榈油的供给反应,为棕榈油进口管理提供理论依据。【方法】利用我国棕榈油月度进口量、棕榈油、豆油、菜籽油现货价格及马来西亚毛棕榈油现货价格数据,在协整-GARCH、误差修正-GARCH框架下进行估计分析,研究供给量与价格间的互动关系,并用线性和非线性Granger因果检验进行稳健性检验。【结果】我国棕榈油的加工厂商和贸易商重视过去较长一段时间积累的方差信息(ARCH效应),而不是上一期的预测方差(GARCH效应);相比于菜籽油,豆油对棕榈油价格的调整力较大;棕榈油供给量对价格的影响力较小,有关价格滞后二阶的好坏消息对供给量具有非对称性影响;棕榈油进口量和价格相互不是Granger原因。【建议】加强棕榈油进口管理、市场建设及库存变化监测,加深棕榈油全球定价机制的研究。[Objective]In this paper, the interaction between palm oil supply and prices of major domestic vegetable oils was analyzed, and supply reaction of palm oil under positive and negative shocks of prices was studied, as as to provide theoretical references for palm oil import management. [Method]The interaction between supply and price was assessed un- der the framework of co-integration-GARCH and error correction-GARCH models using monthly palm oil imports, spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil and rapeseed oil, and spot price of Malaysian palm oil. Linear and nonlinear Granger test was conducted for robustness check. [ Result]Chinese palm oil processing manufacturers and traders preferred to rely on variance information accumulated in the past long period（ARCH effect）, rather than a prediction variance（GARCH ef- fect）. Compared to rapeseed oil, soybean oil had much stronger adjusting force on palm oil. The shock of palm oil supply weakly affected the prices. The signal of price changes with two lags had asymmetric impact on supply of palm oil. There existed no Granger causal relation between supply and price of palm oil. [Suggestion]Palm oil import management, marketing building and inventory monitor should be enhance, and researches on international pricing mechanism of pahn oil need to be deepened.

关 键 词：棕榈油 供给冲击 价格波动 向量误差修正—广义自回归异方差模型(VECM-GARCH模型) 

分 类 号：F307.12[经济管理—产业经济]