地方债规模增长的一个解释框架  

An Explanation Frame of Local Government Debt Scale Growth

作　　者：李一花[1] 张芳洁[1] 亓艳萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东大学经济学院,山东济南250100

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2017年第3期95-101,共7页Modern Economic Science

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“深化收入分配制度改革的财税机制与制度研究”(13&ZD031);国家社科基金重点项目“深化税收制度改革与完善地方税体系研究”(14AZD023)

摘　　要：地方债规模增长是引发地方债务风险的重要方面。治理地方债规模的过快增长需要从理论和实证上识别其形成机制。本文首次从地方财政能力的视角建立了解释地方债规模增长的理论框架,克服了以往研究集中于需求方面的局限。本文研究发现,财政能力对地方债务规模具有重要的影响,尤其对东部地区而言更是如此;对于中西部地区,财政收支缺口的压力对债务规模增长不可小觑。对地方债规模增长成因的解释,意味着政策导向应立足于策略性调整财政分配关系,并从地方债管理的角度,建立可靠的偿债机制和制度法律约束。The growth of local government debt has become an important aspect in triggering local debt risk. It is necessary to identify the formation mechanism of the excessive growth of local debt from theory and practice. This paper constructs a theoretical framework of explaining local debt scale growth from local fiscal capacity for the first time,which is a supplement to a focus study on demand in the prior research. The results find that fiscal capacity has a major impact on local debt scale in the eastern area,while the influence of the financial deficits is more significant in the western. According to the study,the paper suggests that we should proceed from the actual conditions and coordinate the fiscal relationship to curb appetite for the local government debt,put in place the debt repayment mechanism to reduce risk,and improve the institutional and legal system to promote the sustainable development of local debt.

关 键 词：地方债 财政能力 财政赤字 预算软约朿 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学]