基于白化权函数的区间灰数预测模型  

Prediction Model for Interval Grey Number with Whitenization Weight Function

作　　者：罗党[1] 李钰雯 林培源[2] 

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电大学数学与信息科学学院,河南郑州450011 [2]华北水利水电大学管理与经济学院,河南郑州450011

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2017年第8期167-175,共9页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71271086);河南省科技厅重点攻关项目(142102310123);河南省高等学校重点科研项目资助计划(15A630005)

摘　　要：针对传统灰色预测模型无法进行白化权函数已知的区间灰数预测的缺陷,通过先将区间灰数进行标准化处理,分解成实数形式的"白部"和"灰部",然后分别对"白部"和"灰部"序列进行预测.再将已知的白化权函数映射为[0,1]区间上的函数,并用函数的面积和重心估计出预测值的白化权函数.模型不仅能解决典型白化权函数的类型,还能解决三角白化权函数的情况,且建模机理简单,计算简便.最后,将模型应用于黄河宁蒙河段巴彦高勒站的凌期日均流量的预测,验证了新模型的有效性及实用性.Traditional grey prediction models can not be applied to predicting interval grey number with known whitenization weight function. Therefore, the interval grey number is divided into ＂white part＂ and ＂grey part＂ based on real number form by standardizing interval grey numbers, and grey prediction models are established. Then known whitenization weight function is mapped to [0,1] interval function, and the area and the center of gravity of the function can estimate the predicted whitenization function. This model can not only solve the typical type of whitenization function, but also to solve the triangle whitenization function. Modeling mechanism is simple and easy to calculate. Finally, this model is applied to the average daily flow predict of the Bayangaole station of the Yellow River. An application analysis is presented to illustrate the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed model.

关 键 词：灰色系统理论 预测模型 区间灰数 白化权函数 

分 类 号：N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学]