智能电网信息通信系统风险评估的模糊测度方法  

Fuzzy Measurement of Information Communication System Risk Estimation in Smart Grid

作　　者：崔力民[1,2] 李刚[3,4] 王天军[2] 石江红 宋雨[3] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京市102206 [2]国网新疆电力公司信息通信公司,乌鲁木齐市830018 [3]华北电力大学控制与计算机工程学院,河北省保定市071003 [4]新能源电力系统国家重点实验室(华北电力大学),北京市102206

出　　处：《电力建设》2017年第5期52-61,共10页Electric Power Construction

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51407076);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2015ZD28);河北省自然科学基金项目(F2014502050)~~

摘　　要：信息系统与物理系统的深度融合给智能电网信息通信系统的风险评估带来了新的挑战。由于电力网与电力信息网之间的耦合程度越来越深,造成电力信息通信网络的风险评估是一个多层次、多指标,且指标之间具有深度相关性的问题。在此背景下,研究了一种综合的风险评估模型。首先,构建了电力信息通信网络风险评估的指标体系。然后,利用模糊测度和模糊积分法对风险进行综合评估;其中,利用主、客观相结合的权重计算方法来确定单指标的模糊密度,将得到的模糊密度进行模糊测度后,用模糊积分算子来融合指标集合的综合估计值。最后,基于最大隶属度原则得到综合的风险评估值。通过算例分析,验证了该方法的有效性。The deep fusion of cyber and physical system has brought new challenges to the risk assessment of the information and communication network in smart grid. Because the coupling degree between power grid and power information network is deeper and deeper,the risk assessment of power information and communication system contains multiple levels and indicatorswith a deep inner correlation. Under this background,this paper presents a comprehensive risk assessment model. Firstly,we construct the index system of risk assessment for power information communication network,and then comprehensively evaluate the riskwith using fuzzy measure and fuzzy integral method,which determines the fuzzy density of single index by combining the subjective weighting calculation methodwith the objective calculation method,calculates fuzzy measure based on the obtained fuzzy density,and adopts fuzzy integral operator to integrate comprehensive estimation value of index set. Finally,the maximum membership degree principle is adopted to obtain the comprehensive risk value. The effectiveness of the method is verified by a case analysis.

关 键 词：电力信息通信网 风险评估 模糊测度 模糊积分 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TM76