贫信息背景下朱兰质量成本灰色GM(1,1)测算模型  

Study on Grey GM(1,1) Model of Juran Quality Cost Based on Poor Information

作　　者：董文杰[1] 刘思峰[1] 方志耕[1] 方世力[2] 刘靖[2] 于亮[2] 杨晓钰[1] 陶良彦[1] 曹颖赛 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京211106 [2]中国运载火箭技术研究院,北京100761

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2017年第9期84-90,共7页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71671091)

摘　　要：朱兰曲线将质量总成本表示为质量投入与直接质量损失的合成.针对不同质量水平下的质量成本变化趋势,建立保证成本和故障成本的正负指数模型来确定最佳质量成本.灰色均值GM(1,1)测算模型可以同时克服"少数据""贫信息"的缺陷,更加精确地拟合质量成本的变动趋势.与指数函数模型模拟效果进行对比,结果表明灰色系统理论系列模型具有较高的预测精度,将指数函数模型和灰色GM(1,1)模型结合起来可以为企业提高质量管理水平尤其是质量成本管理提供依据和指导.The Juran curve expresses the total quality cost as the sum of the quality input and the direct mass loss. The positive and negative exponential model of cost and fault cost is established to determine the optimal quality cost for different quality levels of quality cost trends. Grey GM （1,1） model can overcome the shortcoming of ＂little data＂ and ＂poor information＂ at the same time, and fit the trend of quality cost more accurately. Compared with the exponential function model, the results show that the grey system theory model has higher prediction precision. Combining the exponential function model with grey GM （1,1） model can provide the basis and guidance for enterprises to improve the quality management level, especially the quality cost management.

关 键 词：质量成本 朱兰曲线 指数模型 灰色系统理论 

分 类 号：N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学]