1974—2012年陕西省榆林市气候变化统计特征  

Statistical Characteristics of Climate Change during 1974-2012 in Yulin,Shaanxi,China

作　　者：刘晓琼[1] 陈云莎[1] 刘彦随[2] 李同昇[1] 雷敏[1] 芮旸[1] 陈静[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北大学城市与环境学院,陕西西安710127 [2]北京师范大学资源学院,北京100875

出　　处：《中国沙漠》2017年第2期355-360,共6页Journal of Desert Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(16XGL015);高等学校特色专业建设项目(TS12489);陕西省教育厅人文社科项目(203091625)

摘　　要：利用1974—2012年榆林市年均气温、年降水量观测资料,采用线性趋势分析、累积距平分析等方法分析了该市39年来的气候变化特征及其趋势,采用Morlet小波分析方法分析了气候序列的变化周期,还综合累积距平分析、Mann-Kendall检验以及不同子序列尺度的Yamamoto分析、滑动t检验等多种方法以准确判断气温、降水量序列的突变点。结果表明:39年间榆林市升温幅度高于减湿幅度,年均气温和年降水量变化呈负相关,2006年以来出现弱度的减温增湿;气温、降水量变化分别存在冷暖与干湿位交替的多时间尺度变化特征,其主周期分别为13、8~9、30、5年和3年、8~9年;39年间榆林市气温和降水量序列突变点不一,而且降水量序列突变不明显;判断气候序列突变点时,宜采用多种诊断方法以提高判断结果的准确性。The meteorological data collected at 12 stations in Yulin are analyzed based on the liner regression analysis and accumulative anomaly analysis to get the characteristics and trend of climate change in Yulin during 1974--2012, Morlet analysis is used to get the variation period of climate series, and accumulative a- nomaly, Mann-Kendall abrupt test and moving t-test, Yamamoto analysis for different subsequences were applied to detect catastrophe points of climate series. Results show that the range of climatic warming is higher than climate drying; there exist cold/warm, dry/wet alternation and a negative correlation between the annual mean air temperature and the annual precipitation, and there is a weak trend of getting-cold and getting-humid from warming-drying since 2006 ; the main cycles of the annual mean air temperature and an- nual precipitation are 13 a, 8--9 a, 30 a, 5 a and 3 a, 8--9 a, respectively; the amount and time of catas- trophe points of the climate series are different, and the catastrophe of annual precipitation is not obvious; synthetic analysis should be adopted to get accurate catastrophe point of climate series.

关 键 词：气候变化 小波分析 统计特征 榆林 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]