短期风功率场景质量的评估框架构建研究  

Research on Establishment of Quality Evaluation Framework of Short-Term Wind Power Scenarios

作　　者：王小飞[1] 胡志坚[1] 仉梦林[1] 胡美玉[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学电气工程学院,湖北省武汉市430072

出　　处：《电网技术》2017年第5期1583-1589,共7页Power System Technology

基　　金：高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20110141110032)~~

摘　　要：短期风功率场景作为随机规划的输入受到广泛关注,场景质量直接关系到决策结果的优劣。目前大量场景生成方法中,缺乏对场景质量的评估,为此,将短期风电不确定性分为时间断面上的随机性和时段之间的波动性,建立了场景质量评估框架。以爱尔兰电力系统风电数据为样本,对是否考虑风电出力时段之间相关性的2类场景进行评估。结果表明考虑出力相关性的场景,可以更好地刻画风电随机性和波动性,能够为调度运行及可靠性评估提供更有力的技术支持。As stochastic programming input, short term wind power scenarios attract wide concern, and quality of scenarios is intuitively related to benefits of decision results. However, in most scenario generation methods widely studied, scenarios evaluation is ignored. This paper establishes a scenario quality evaluation framework, in which uncertainty of short-term wind power is divided into randomness at each individual lead time and volatility between periods. According to wind power＇s correlation between periods, the scenarios are divided into two categories, and they are evaluated with the proposed evaluation framework based on wind power data in Ireland＇s power system. Results show that the scenarios considering wind power＇s correlation can better depict randomness and volatility of wind power, thus providing more powerful technical support for operation and reliability evaluation.

关 键 词：场景 随机规划 评估框架 时间相关性 

分 类 号：TM72[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]