目标模型关系法在战略情报分析中的应用——以分析南海武装冲突的可能性为例  

Application of Target-modeling Method in Strategic Intelligence Analysis: a Case Study on South China Sea Conflict

作　　者：张静[1] 林媛[1] 蒋飞[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]空军工程大学理学院,陕西西安710051 [2]西安交通大学,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《情报理论与实践》2017年第5期61-64,共4页Information Studies:Theory & Application

摘　　要：[目的/意义]针对当前战略情报分析工作中存在的团队合作不足、任务重叠和分工不明确等问题,依托M.C.Robert提出的"以目标为中心"的情报分析思想,以建模思想为基础,提出了针对欲求目标进行情报分析的"目标模型关系法"。[方法/过程]通过对南海武装冲突可能性的分析,详细阐述了此方法的具体应用流程。[结果/结论]该方法在处理战略情报问题上的实用性和优势得以验证,为战略情报分析方法的创新提供了借鉴。[ Purpose/significance ] In order to solve the problems such as poor teamwork, mission overlap and unequivocal di- vision of labor in the practice of strategic intelligence analysis, this paper puts forward target-modeling method, which is based on modeling theory and ＂target-centric＂ intelligence analysis theory proposed by M. C. Robert. [ Method/process ]The paper specifies the application of target-modeling method with a case study on South China Sea conflict. [ Result/conclusion] It has been testified that target-modeling method has great practicability and advantage in the aspect of dealing with strategic intelligence, meanwhile the paper provides an innovative method for strategic intelligence analysis.

关 键 词：目标模型关系法 战略情报 情报分析 建模 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系] G350[政治法律—政治学]