美元利率波动对中国进出口影响的实证分析  

An Empirical Study of the Impact of US Dollar Interest Rate Fluctuation on China's Import and Export

作　　者：戴伟[1] 张雪芳[1] DAI Wei ZHANG Xuefang(School of Economics and Management, Hubei Polytechnic University, Huangshi Hubei 43500)

机构地区：[1]湖北理工学院经济与管理学院,湖北黄石435003

出　　处：《湖北理工学院学报（人文社会科学版）》2017年第3期63-68,共6页Journal of Hubei Polytechnic University(Humanities And Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"‘脱实向虚’背景下金融服务实体经济的非均衡效应研究";项目编号:71473074;湖北省教育厅人文社科研究重点项目"新常态背景下信息化;新型城镇化与居民消费关系研究";项目编号:16D101

摘　　要：2015年12月16日,美联储宣布将联邦基金利率上调至0.5%,标志着美元新一轮加息开始。文章基于VAR模型,运用Granger因果检验与脉冲响应函数针对美元利率波动对中国进出口的影响进行了实证分析。结果表明:美元加息会影响中国的进出口,可能导致出口增加、进口下降,并且短期影响大于长期影响、出口影响大于进口影响;加息对中国进出口的影响大于降息的影响,表明中国应更关注美元加息带来的影响。The Federal Reserve announced that the federal funds rate is raised by 25 basis points to 0. 5% on Dec 16,2015, which marks the beginning of a new round of interest rate increase. Based on the VAR model, the authors make an empirical study on the impact of US Dollar interest rate fluctuation on China^s import and export by using Granger causality test and impulse response function. The results show that the US dollar in-terest rate rises will affect China^s import and export, which includes the increase of export and decline of im-port ,and the short - term impact is greater than the long - term impact as well as the impact on export is greater than that on import;The impact of interest rate rises on China^s import and export is greater than that of interest rate cuts that China should pay more attention to the impact of interest rate rises of US Dollar.

关 键 词：美元 利率 波动 进出口 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]