生育意愿:是确定值还是区间  

Fertility Preference:A Determined Value or A Range

作　　者：张银锋[1] 侯佳伟[2] 顾宝昌[3] ZHANG Yin-feng HOU Jia- wei GU Bao- chang(The Public Policy and Social Governance Center,and the Sociology Institute of Academy of Social Science of Tianjin,Tianjing 300191 Sociological Department,Central Finance and Economics University,Beijing 100081 Population and Development Center of People’s University,Beijing 100872)

机构地区：[1]天津社会科学院公共政策与社会治理研究中心社会学研究所,天津300191 [2]中央财经大学社会学系,北京100081 [3]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心,北京100872

出　　处：《南方人口》2017年第2期62-70,共9页South China Population

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"生育意愿和生育行为不一致现象的原因及其影响机制研究"(编号:15CRK008)阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文以2015年先后在北京和天津开展的"居民生育意愿和行为研究"为例,探讨个体生育意愿存在区间范围的现象。研究证实,在数量方面,两成以上的人计划生育1到2个孩子,后来由于种种原因生育了1个或者2个。在性别方面,"儿女双全"是大多数人的美好愿望,但是可能仅有不到一成的人会为了实现"儿女双全"而坚持生育两个孩子。有性别偏好并不意味着就会人为选择子女性别,只有拥有强烈性别偏好的人群规模才会与出生性别比升高密切相关。在年龄方面,实际生育子女的年龄在理想生育年龄3岁左右的范围内,都被认为是满意的。充分认识到个体生育意愿并不是一个确定值而是存在一个区间范围,这对于生育水平的预测具有重要的认识论和方法论意义。This paper demonstrates the fertility preference should be regarded as a range based on the study of Residents’ fertility preference and reproduction behavior in Beijing and Tianjin in 2015. These empirical studies prove that 20% residents’ fertility preference for children number is ranged from 1 to 2 and the consequence showed that they actually had 1 child or 2 children and that the majority of residents hold the fertility preference for having both son and daughter but only 10% of them to have two children in the gender structure of consideration. Residents with fertility preference for gender not means all of them will actually select children’s gender and only those who with strong gender preference are likely to cause the increase of birth gender ratio. For fertility age, the age 3 years away from ideal fertility age all be regarded as satisfactory. All in all, individual’ s fertility preference regarded as a range instead of a certain determined value can be great implications in fertility prediction in the perspectives of epistemology and methodology.

关 键 词：生育意愿区间 子女数量 子女性别 生育年龄 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]