要素成本上升背景下我国外贸的中长期趋势分析  

A Long-term Trend Analysis of China's Foreign Trade in the Context of Factors-cost Rising

作　　者：武力超[1,2] 张中弛 满月[4] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院国际经济与贸易系,福建厦门361005 [2]厦门大学两岸和平发展协同创新中心,福建厦门361005 [3]北京大学经济学院国际经济与贸易系,北京100871 [4]香港中文大学经济系

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2017年第3期518-529,共12页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目的阶段性成果(15CJL052);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(13JZD010);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(16JJD790036)的资助

摘　　要：本文在近年来广义要素成本上涨的背景下,利用HS98章商品2010-2014年的月度数据,对我国出口商品的国际市场竞争力进行中长期动态预测。文中选取显示性比较优势指数(RCA)作为表征贸易商品竞争力的度量指标,结合要素成本上涨的背景,利用马尔可夫链动态模型,对我国外贸的中长期趋势进行预测。研究发现:短期内在广义要素成本上升的背景下,第一产业的大部分商品及第二产业中纺织原料及纺织品受到较大冲击;从长期趋势来看,第一产业维持了稳定的比较优势,而对于第二产业其影响效应分化,纺织原料及纺织品、轻工业产品、陶瓷及玻璃制品的国际竞争优势呈明显下跌趋势,而矿产品、普通和精密机械、木制品和纸制品的国际市场竞争力并无明显变化,第二产业受到的长期影响要比短期更显著。Considering rising generalized factors costs, we used monthly data from 2010 to 2014 of primary and secondary industries to study the dynamic prediction of impacts of increasing factor costs on international competitiveness of China. We select the revealed comparative advantage index as a measure of competitiveness, and we first analyzed the short-term static effects of rising costs on both industries and then utilized Markov chain model to explore the long-term dynamic relationship. The research shows that the rise in generalized factor costs has significant effect on most commodities of primary industry and textiles and textile products of the secondary industry in the short term. In the long term, the primary industry could maintain its comparative advantages without great changes but its effects would be different for the secondary industry. International competitive advantages of textiles and textile articles, light industrial products, ceramic and glassware embody obvious downward trend, but the international market competitiveness of capital-intensive or capital exporting products, such as minerals, general and precision machinery, wood and paper products,would not be much affected by the increasing factor costs, so the long-term impact on the secondary industry would be more significant than the short-term.

关 键 词：广义要素成本上涨 马尔可夫链 显示性比较优势 国际竞争力 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]