丝绸之路经济带节点城市人文驱动因素对环境的影响  

Impact of human factors on environment in a Silk Road economic belt node city

作　　者：虞文宝[1,2] 宋晓谕[1] 简富缋 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院内陆河流域生态水文重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]甘肃省经济研究院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2017年第1期200-206,共7页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：国家自然科学重点基金项目(91125019);国家自然科学基金重大研究计划集成项目(91325302);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(41401645);兰州市城关区科技计划项目(2016-6-3)资助

摘　　要："一带一路"上升为国家战略,推进丝绸之路经济带建设使中国西北地区由过去发展的腹地转变为开放的前沿。通过引入STIRPAT模型,研究分析了丝绸之路经济带节点城市人文驱动因素对环境的影响,设定了三种情景分析节点城市未来低碳发展情况。结果表明:人文驱动因素对碳排放的影响程度较大,模型拟合优度达到95.2%,能源消耗强度(T)、富裕程度(A)和人口数量(P)的弹性系数分别为0.511、0.285和0.222,基准情景下二氧化碳排放总量呈现稳步上升态势,政策情景和低碳情景下碳排放存在"拐点",预计碳排放峰值将在2025-2033年间出现,低碳情景峰值比政策情景提前8 a到达,峰值总量减少40.79×10~4t。最后针对分析结果就丝绸之路经济带节点城市人文驱动因素对环境的影响提出了相关建议,即控制人口数量、优化产业结构、强化污染治理。To construct “OBOR” has been upgraded to a national strategy, Northwest China will become the frontline of reform and opening. With the introduction of STIRPAT model, analyzing the impact of human factors on the environment and predicting the future carbon emissions in a Silk Road economic belt node city show that the human factors are the significant driving forces for carbon emissions, with a goodness of 95.2%; the elastic coefficients of energy consumption intensity, affluence and population are 0.511, 0.285 and 0.222, respectively. The carbon emission rises steadily in the business as usual scenario, however, in the policy scenario and low carbon scenario there is a inflection point with a peak in 2025-2033. The peak of low carbon scenario arrived eight years earlier than that of policy scenario, reducing the peak amount of 407 900 tons. Finally, suggestions are made for policy makers based on the analysis results, that is to control the population size, to optimize the industrial structure and to strengthen pollution control.

关 键 词：丝绸之路经济带 节点城市 人文因素 环境影响 STIRPAT模型 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]