基于Multi-Agent的手术等待时间时空模式建模与仿真  

Multi-Agent Based Modelling and Simulation for Understanding Tempo-Spatial Patterns of Surgery Wait Times

作　　者：陶丽[1] 骆亮[1] 张自力[1] 赖红[1] 肖富元[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南大学计算机与信息科学学院,重庆400715

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2017年第5期979-987,共9页Journal of System Simulation

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(XDJK 2014C152;XDJK2015C153;XDJK2016C043;SWU11 4112);重庆市科技研发基地建设计划(国际科技合作)(cstc2015gjhz40002);西南大学博士基金(SWU115091)

摘　　要：为刻画病人就医等待时间的时空规律,以心脏病手术为例,基于多Agent建模技术,搭建心脏病手术服务系统MA-CSS(Multi-Agent Cardiac Surgery Service)模型。该模型重点关注病人就医距离、医疗资源丰富程度、医院和病人个体行为等多种因素对等待时间动态性的交互影响。基于MA-CSS模型的仿真实验较好地复现真实心脏病手术等待时间的时空规律,同时揭示病人择医行为、医院服务能力调整行为和等待时间之间的交互是自组织形成等待时间时空模式的可能原因。In order to characterize the self-organized tempo-spatial patterns of wait times in a healthcare service system, a multi-agent cardiac surgery service model （MA-CSS model） was proposed based on the multi-agent modeling within the context of cardiac surgery services. This model pays a special attention to how patients＇ and hospitals＇ behaviors and interactions affect the dynamics and relevant patterns of wait times with respect to some key factors, such as geographic accessibility to services, hospital resourcefulness, and wait times. By experimenting with the MA-CSS model it was observed that certain regularities in wait times emerged from the simulation, which were similar to those discovered from the real world. It reveals the patients＇ hospital-selection behaviors, hospitals＇ service-adjustment behaviors, and their interactions via wait times may account for the self-organized tempo-spatial patterns of wait times in cardiac surgery services.

关 键 词：医疗服务系统 心脏病手术 等待时间 时空模式 Multi-Agent建模 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]