基于环境友好视角的中国最优城市规模研究——来自DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据的经验证据  

Optimal City Size from the Perspective of Environmental Friendliness:Based on Empirical Evidence Using DMSP/OLS Nighttime Light Data

作　　者：项本武[1] 张亚丽[2] 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学经济学院 [2]华中科技大学经济学院

出　　处：《中国地质大学学报（社会科学版）》2017年第3期74-84,共11页Journal of China University of Geosciences(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目"新型城市化视野下的产城融合实现机制研究"(15BJL095);教育部"新世纪优秀人才支持计划"(NECT-11-0747)

摘　　要：利用DMSP/OLS全球夜间灯光数据和能源消费量之间的定量关系及能源消耗碳排放系数,核算出中国地级及以上城市的人均碳排放量。在此基础上,构建城市人均碳排放决定的动态面板模型,使用GMM估计方法检验了城市人口密度对城市人均二氧化碳排放的影响。研究发现,城市人口密度与人均碳排放呈U型关系,基于人均碳排放最小化的原则,中国城市最优人口密度为1.41万人/平方公里,我国70%左右的地级及以上城市的实际人口密度低于其最优人口密度,从而表明,我国大部分城市实际人口规模低于其最优水平。为推进环境友好的新型城镇化,对城市规模和密度的控制应考虑不同城市的环境承载力差异,避免基于城市现有等级设定统一标准,对现有人口规模超过最优规模的城市加大控制力度,对低于最优人口规模的城市应该充分发挥其人口吸纳潜力;同时,优化城市内部空间结构,促进城市内部不同区域间的人口均衡分布,形成合理的总体人口密度,从而有利于中国城市人均碳排放的减少。By using the quantitative relationship between DMSP/OLS nighttime lights data and energy consumption data and the coefficient of carbon emissions from energy consumption, CO2 emissions per capita in a prefecture-level city scale from 2001 to 2013 are calculated based on which this paper builds the dynamic panel data model of determination for C（）2 emissions to examines the influence of population density on COz emissions per capita by using GMM. The results suggest that there is a U-shaped rela- tionship between per capita CO2 emissions and population density in cities, and in the view of minimizing CO2 emissions per capita, the optimal population density is 14.1 thousand people per square kilometers, and 70~ of cities＇ population density is below its optimal level which means that the population size in the majority of cities below its optimal level. It is recommended that in order to propel environmentally friendly urbanization process, governments should take different policies among cities with different en- vironmental carrying capacity rather than set one standard for all cities, while exercising strict control o- ver population expansion for over-populated cities, governments should make full use of potential for absorbs population in less-populated ones. Meanwhile, optimizing space-structure intra-eity and balancing population distribution among different districts in city is necessary to optimize the overall popula- tion density in a city level and to reduce CO2 emissions per capita.

关 键 词：人均碳排放 环境友好 最优城市规模 

分 类 号：F299.2[经济管理—国民经济]