2009-2014年内蒙古手足口病时空扫描聚集性分析  

Temporal-spatial scan clustering analysis on hand-foot-mouth disease during 2009 to 2014 in Inner Mongolia

作　　者：洪志敏[1] 王晓磊[2] 郭卫东[3] 魏利东 郝慧[1] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古工业大学理学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010051 [2]内蒙古医科大学,内蒙古呼和浩特010050 [3]内蒙古自治区疾病预防控制中心,内蒙古呼和浩特010031 [4]内蒙古呼和浩特市统计局,内蒙古呼和浩特010020

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2017年第10期1729-1733,1738,共6页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(81360213);内蒙古自然科学基金项目(2015MS0104,2015MS0818,2013MS1147)

摘　　要：目的分析2009-2014年内蒙古地区手足口病的时空分布特征,为手足口病的防控以及卫生资源的合理配置提供科学依据。方法利用R软件对2009-2014年内蒙古手足口病监测数据进行描述性流行病学分析。采用基于离散Poisson模型的时空扫描统计量,使用Sa TScan 9.1软件完成时空聚集性扫描分析,扫描空间单位为内蒙古的102个旗县区,扫描时间单位为月,跨度从2009年1月-2014年12月,由Arc GIS 10.2软件进行扫描结果的可视化展示。结果描述性分析结果显示,内蒙古地区手足口病的发病率呈现明显的季节性变化规律,每年的5月-7月为手足口病的异常高发时间,且每年的发病呈双峰分布,第二发病高峰出现在每年的9月-11月;0~5岁年龄组儿童是主要的发病病例,所有病例中散居儿童占59.99%,男性儿童的发病率明显高于女性儿童。Sa TScan时空扫描分析显示,手足口病发病存在明显的时空聚集性,时间维度为6-7月,空间维度上分别扫描出3、3、7、2、3和3个手足口病聚集区域。结论2009-2014年内蒙古地区手足口病西南地区高发,5-7月是主要流行高峰,发病存在时空聚集性,季节性发病规律明显,聚集区存在于内蒙古中东部和西南。Objective This paper aimed to describe the temporal-spatial distribution of hand foot and mouth disease （HFMD） in Inner Mongolia during 2009 to 2014, and provide scientific evidence for the prevention and control of HFMD and reasonable allocation of health resources. Methods The surveillance information of HFMD in Inner Mongolia during 2009 to 2014 were analyzed with descriptive methods by using software R. Spatial scan unit was by country of Inner Mongolia which has 102 counties,and the time scan unit was by month with time spauing from January 2009 to December 2014. Space-time scan statistics based on discrete Po＇isson model was used and analysis was conducted by SaTScan 9.1. The result was visualized with ArcGIS 10.2. Results Incidence of HFMD showed obvious seasonal distribution and peaked during May-July every year, also with a small peak during September-November of every each year. The cases were mainlyin children aged ≤ 5 years, 60% of whom were scattered children. Males were more likely to be infected with HFMD than females. When Space-time scan statistics based on SaTScan 9.1 was applied at the country region, the incidence of HFMD cases showed pattern of temporal and spatial clustering. The temporal dimension of HFMD was from June to July each year. There were 3, 3, 7, 2, 3 and 3 clustering areas in spatial dimension. Conclusion The southwest area had a high incidence of HFMD in Inner Mongolia during 2009-2014, peaking during May and July. Temporal-spatial clustering were observed. The disease showed a distinct seasonal distribution. Cases clustered in the middle-east areas and southwest areas of Inner Mongolia.

关 键 词：手足口病 流行特征 时空聚集性 趋势分析 

分 类 号：R181.22[医药卫生—流行病学]