基于模糊层次分析法对“一带一路”重要区域地质灾害危险性评价——以关中经济区为例  

DANGER ASSESSMENT OF GEOLOGICAL DISASTERS IN AN IMPORTANT REGION OF ＂THE BELT AND ROAD＂ BASED ON FAHP--A CASE STUDY OF GUANZHONG ECONOMIC REGION

作　　者：杨冬冬[1,2] 胡胜[1,2] 邱海军[1,2] 何毅[1,2] 曹明明[1] 裴艳茜 杨文璐[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]西北大学城市与环境学院,西安710127 [2]西北大学地表系统与灾害研究院,西安710127

出　　处：《第四纪研究》2017年第3期633-644,共12页Quaternary Sciences

基　　金：中国科学院国际合作局对外合作重点项目（批准号：131551KYSB20160002）、国家自然科学基金项目（批准号：41401602）、陕西省自然科学基金项目（批准号：2014JQ2-4021）和西北大学研究生自主创新项目（批准号：YZZ15011）共同资助

摘　　要：在“一带一路”沿线区域开展地质灾害危险性评价与区划具有重大意义。本文以关中经济区为例，综合考虑地质灾害特点、分布规律与孕灾环境等要素，基于坡度和地形起伏度的组合，提出了地质灾害安全区域与非安全区域的初步识别方法。在此基础上，采用模糊层次分析法和GIS空间分析方法对地质灾害各孕灾因子进行了危险性等级评价，并分别进行了单因子和多因子综合制图与结果验证。研究结果表明：1）地质灾害安全区域与非安全区域的初步判识，对灾害风险管理和降低防灾减灾成本有重要参考价值，也大大提高了地质灾害评价区域的针对性和准确性。2）研究区地质灾害安全区域面积占比22.9%（17054.5km^2），非安全区域占比77.1%（57462.6km^2），轻度危险区、低危险区、中危险区和高危险区面积分别占非安全区域面积的17.2%、32.2%、32.0%、18.6%，以中、低危险性为主（64.2%）。高危险性区域集中分布在关中经济区的西北、西南、东南部，而轻度危险性区域集中分布在关中平原以南地区，呈现出东西走向的“条带状”。3）共计3230个灾害点中，仅有3.3%（106个）的灾害点分布在安全区域中，其余96.7%（3124个）的灾害点均分布在非安全区域之中。分布在轻度危险、低危险、中危险和高危险区域中的分别有328个（10.2%）、765个（23.7%）、1007个（31.2%）、1024个（31.7%），这与危险性等级区划结果具有很好的一致性。表明本文提出的地质灾害安全区域识别方法和地质灾害危险性区划方法具有一定的科学性和准确性。Guanzhong Economic Region is located in central of Shaanxi Province in China, with an area of 74517.1km2, bordering on four provinces, Shanxi, Henan, Hubei and Gansu, relying on unique geographical location advantage, and it is the origin of the ancient Silk Road, also one of the important development area in the Belt and Road Initiative. Guanzhong Economic Region owns complex and varied topography inside, centered on the Guanzhong Plain, and Loess Platform Region in the north, and Qinling Mountains in the south. At the same time, because of numerous faultage inside, it has always been the area with high rates of geological hazards, such as landslides, collapse and debris flow, in our country. In this area, carrying out the geological disaster risk assessment is of important strategic significance. Scientific evaluation results can not only provide the theoretical basis for the regional economic construction, industrial layout, disaster prevention and mitigation, but also provide scientific reference for geological hazard risk assessment work in other area along the Belt and Road. In this paper, considering the rules, characteristics and hazard-formative environments of geological disasters, based on analysis of gradient and relief, we put forward preliminary identification method of security region and insecurity region of geological disasters. On this basis, FAHP（Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process）and GIS spatial analysis were used to conduct risk ratings for each factor of geological disasters, and finally mapping and result verification were made respectively. The results showed that：（1）Preliminary identification of security region and insecure region in geological disasters had an important reference value for disaster risk management and reducing the cost of disaster prevention and reduction. （2）Security region of geological disasters accounted for 22.9% （17054.5km^2） of the total area in study area, and insecurity region accounted for 77.1% （57462.6km^2）, and the lighter danger area, l

关 键 词：FAHP安全区域 地质灾害 危险性评价 关中经济区 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学] P954