资源价格对区域经济增长的影响研究:以上海经济为例  

Study on the impact of resource price to regional economic growth:A case study of Shanghai economy——Exploration and Practice on Zhejiang Jiashan County-level Scientific Development Demonstration Site

作　　者：孙林[1] 赵竞飞[2] 张志远[2] 苏振宇[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院应用经济研究所,上海200020 [2]上海市统计局,上海200003

出　　处：《上海经济》2017年第3期48-64,共17页Shanghai Economy

基　　金：上海市统计局专项课题

摘　　要：本文利用上海2012年投入产出表等数据构建了CGE模型,模拟分析资源价格变动对上海经济增长以及主要产业部门产生的影响。研究表明,石油天然气价格波动对上海经济增长的影响最大;主要资源性产品价格对上海经济各方面的影响存在显著的差异;资源性产品价格波动对各个产业部门产生不同的影响。为了缓解国际国内资源价格波动对上海经济增长产生的负面影响,上海需要在提高资源使用效率的前提下加快产业结构调整与升级。This paper utilizes the CGE model that constructed by using the data of input and output table of 2012 to simulate the influence of resource price fluctuation on Shanghai＇s economic growth and major industrial sectors. The results show that the fluctuation of oil and gas prices has the greatest impact on Shanghai＇s economic growth. There are significant differences in the impact of major resource products on various aspects of Shanghai＇s economy. The fluctuation of resource products has different effects on various industrial sectors. In order to alleviate the negative impact of international and domestic resource price fluctuations on Shanghai＇s economic growth, it is necessary to accelerate the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure under the premise of improving the efficiency of resource use.

关 键 词：资源价格 上海经济增长 可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]