经济转型和低碳双约束下的中国能源消费情景预测  

China's Energy Consumption Projection Prediction Restrained by Economic Transition and Low Carbon Emission

作　　者：吴凡[1] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院,中国北京100029

出　　处：《经济与管理》2017年第3期80-86,共7页Economy and Management

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划(2013BAJ04B02);国家社科基金一般项目(15BJL081)

摘　　要：根据不同的经济转型目标设置具有不同投资结构、消费模式、贸易格局、技术水平的情景组合,并结合碳税、碳交易等应对气候变化政策,模拟经济转型和经济非转型情景下中国的能源消费和CO_2排放状况。研究表明在经济社会发展的刚性需求推动下,2030年之前CO_2排放将维持较快增长;经济转型的顺利实现将促进中国的低碳发展,显著降低减排成本。Different combination setting was proposed according to different investment structure, consumption mode, trade pattern and technical level, as well as taking respond to climate change policies taking carbon tax and carbon trade into account, simulate the energy consumption and CO2 emissions Under the condition of economy transition and non-transition. The result shows that driven by rigid demand of economic and social development, CO2 emissions will maintain a rapid growth before 2030, the success realization of economic transition will effectively promote China＇s low carbon development and significantly reduce the cost of emission reduction.

关 键 词：经济转型 CGE模型 能源需求 CO2排放 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]