甘蔗区域产量保险纯费率厘定方法的比较研究——基于广西甘蔗单产数据  

The Comparative Study of the Sugarcane Yield Insurance Premium Rate Making Methods——Based on sugarcane yield data in Guangxi

作　　者：马改艳[1] 周磊[2] 徐学荣[2] 

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学金山学院,福州350002 [2]福建农林大学经济学院,福州350002

出　　处：《科技和产业》2017年第2期177-183,共7页Science Technology and Industry

基　　金：福建省自然科学基金(2011J01378);福建省教育厅社会科学研究项目(JAS150833)

摘　　要：农作物保险产品设计的关键环节是厘定费率,准确、合理的保险费率将有助于实现作物保险"农民买得起、保险公司赔得起、政府补得起"。使用参数分布法(包括正态分布、Weibull分布、Logistic分布等)和非参数核密度分布法对甘蔗单产损失率的概率分布进行了拟合,并分别厘定了不同分布下的纯费率,同时用经验费率法厘定了甘蔗产量保险的纯费率。研究结果表明,经验费率法厘定的纯费率最低,为2.043%;在参数法下,正态分布厘定的纯费率最低,为4.2666%;Weibull分布下的纯费率最高,为4.7431%;总体上,参数法与非参数法拟合出的纯费率结果比较接近,非参数法厘定的结果略高于参数法,研究还表明纯费率的合理厘定在很大程度上依赖于农作物产量损失率分布模型的合理选择。Setting insurance rate is a key link of designing crop insurance.Accurate and reasonable premium rate will help to achieve crop insurance 'farmers can afford,insurance company can compensate,the government can subsidy'.This paper used parameter distribution method(including Normal distribution and Weibull distribution,Logistic distribution,etc)and nonparametric kernel density distribution method to simulate the probability distribution of the loss rate of sugarcane production,and set out the pure rate under different distribution respectively.At the same time,we used experience rating method to set the sugarcane insurance rates.The Study shown that,the pure rate by the experience rating method was lowest;in the parametric methods,the pure rate by the Normal distribution was lowest,the Weibull distribution was highest;over all,the fitting results of the parametric and nonparametric method were close,the result of the nonparametric method slightly higher than the parameter method.The study also showed that,to a large extent.The rational pure rate depends on the reasonable yield loss distribution model.

关 键 词：甘蔗 产量分布 参数分布 非参数核密度分布 经验费率 

分 类 号：F323.9[经济管理—产业经济]