推进城镇化、降低房价与房地产去库存——对我国35个大中城市的经验分析  

Urbanization Promotion,Housing Prices Decrease and Real Estate Destocking——Empirical Analysis from 35 Big and Medium-sized Cities in China

作　　者：刘斌[1] 孙九伦 姚瑶[2] 

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学经济学院,重庆400067 [2]北京大学国家发展研究院,北京100080

出　　处：《西部论坛》2017年第3期79-87,共9页West Forum

基　　金：重庆市教委人文社科项目(15SKG098);重庆工商大学高层次人才科研启动项目(1655002)

摘　　要：推进城镇化和降低房价被认为是当前我国房地产去库存的主要措施。利用2001—2013年35个大中城市的数据实证检验推进城镇化和降低房价对房地产去库存的影响,结果表明:从整体上来讲,推进城镇化和降低房价确实能够有效消化当前我国过剩的房地产库存;但也表现出明显的地区差异,东部地区推进城镇化的作用明显但降低房价的作用有限,中西部地区降低房价的作用显著而推进城镇化的作用有限;此外,提高人均收入对房地产去库存也具有积极影响,而地方财政收入越高、人口密度越大的地区房地产去库存的压力越大。因此,房地产去库存应因地制宜,要根据各城市的房地产市场情况制定切实可行的政策,实现精准调控。Promoting urbanization and lowering housing prices are regarded as the main measures tohuge inventory of real estate market. The data of 35 big and medium-sized cities ofused to empirically test the influence of urbanization promotion and housing prices decrease on the destocking of real estate and the results showthat overall speaking, the development of urbanization and lowering housing preffectively reduce the current surplus inventory 〇 f r a l estate but there is significantly regional difference,in theeastern region , the destocking-effect of promoting urbanization is more obvious but lowering housing prices eflimited; in the Midwest, by contrast, lowering housing prices can play a significant destocking-role while promurbanization effect is insignificant. Furthermore, we find that the increase of per capita income also has an active impact on the inventory reducing of real estate, however, the higher the regional financial revenue is anthe regional population density is,the bigger the pressure of the destocking of its real estate is. Thus, the destocking of real estate should make appropriate policy based on different place situation and realize accurate adjustment according to the market situation of different cities.

关 键 词：城镇化 房价 房地产去库存 商品房存销比 房地产调控政策 住房需求 住房供给 住房支付能力 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]