我国的燕麦草生产和贸易  

Production and trade of wild oat forage in China

作　　者：杨春[1] 王国刚[1] 王明利[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《草业科学》2017年第5期1129-1135,共7页Pratacultural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71503251);中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(ASTIP-IAED-2015-01);现代农业产业技术体系项目(CARS-35-22)

摘　　要：草食家畜饲喂燕麦(Avena sativa)草,对于提高粗饲料利用效率、维持乳蛋白率、抑制奶牛产后病和代谢病、延长奶牛产奶时长、降低饲养成本、增加产奶量、增加日增重等方面有重要作用,正逐步被更多牧场所认可和重视。近年来,我国燕麦草生产规模正逐步扩大,燕麦草进口量明显增加。本研究在阐述我国燕麦草生产和贸易发展基本情况的基础上,基于自回归移动平均模型(ARMA),对我国燕麦草的总产量和进口量进行预测,在此基础上,分析了我国燕麦草生产和贸易未来趋势,并提出了相关政策建议。Feeding wild oat herb to livestock that typically feed on grass improves efficiency of roughage, main- tains the protein percentage in milk, inhibits puerperal diseases and metabolic diseases in cows, thereby prolon- ging the life-span of cows, reducing feed cost, increasing milk yield and daily gain, and other aspects. Wild oat as feed is gradually being accepted and valued by livestock farmers. In recent years, the production of wild oat herb has increased significantly in China; the import quantity of wild oat is also increasing. This study analysed wild oat production and trade in China, as well as determined the future development characteristics and trend of wild oat production and trade. Based on ARMA model, we predicted the total production and import quality of wild oat. On the basis of our observations, we propose future trends of production and trade of wild oat and suggest policies for development of the wild oat production industry.

关 键 词：燕麦 产量 进口量 进口价格 ARMA模型 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F752.6