知识、全要素生产率与中等收入陷阱  

Knowledge,Total Factor Productivity and Middle Income Trap

作　　者：李月[1] 邓露[2] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学台湾经济研究所 [2]中央财经大学统计与数学学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2017年第5期109-126,共18页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(项目编号:71401189);韩国高等教育财团;南开大学亚洲研究中心研究课题"经济新常态下全要素生产率的提升机制;路径及对策研究"(项目编号AS1619);"中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心"资助

摘　　要：文章围绕中等收入陷阱与知识、全要素生产率三者之间的关系,沿着中等收入陷阱的表象-陷入中等收入陷阱的机制-实证陷入陷阱的临界条件-跨越中等收入陷阱的路径选择的思路展开。经过理论与实证研究发现:(1)中等收入陷阱是多重均衡的经济运行过程中低水平均衡的表现;(2)形成低水平均衡的原因在于经济体进入中等收入初期时,知识存量占比低于门槛水平;(3)实证求得知识存量占比初值的门槛值为1.9154,若低于该值则经济收敛于低水平均衡,且知识存量占比对经济发展产生负作用,反之则反是;(4)中国的创新效率与发达国家之间的差距依然存在,提升知识存量占比进而顺利跨越中等收入陷阱的有效路径是有效提高R&D投入效率以及加大企业的创新规模等。This paper focuses on the relationship between middle income trap,knowledge and total factor productivity. It tries to analyze the threshold level of middle income trap-path to escaping middle income trap. Through the theoretical and empirical study,we found that: 1. Middle income trap is the low level equilibrium out of the multiple equilibrium economy; 2. The reason of low level equilibrium is that when a country enters middle income level,the share of knowledge stock is below the threshold level; 3.The threshold level of initial share of knowledge stock is 1. 9154 by empirical analysis,below which the economy will converge to the low level equilibrium,and have a negative effect on economic development; 4. Furthermore,this paper explores the correspondence between middle income trap and TFP,finding that TFP growth interval is [-0. 54%,-0. 3%] for countries falling in trap,and [0. 14%,0. 28%]for countries escaping the trap; 5. There is still a gap in innovation efficiency between China and the developed countries,therefore,the valid path to escape middle income trap is to enhance knowledge stock share and to increase the size of enterprise in innovations.

关 键 词：中等收入陷阱 知识 全要素生产率 多重均衡 经济收敛 

分 类 号：F124.7[经济管理—世界经济]