G-W长期增长模型及其对世界经济增长的含义  

G-W Long-Run Growth Model And World Economy Growth

作　　者：柴洪辉[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学经济学院 [2]贵安新区发展研究中心

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2017年第5期127-134,共8页World Economy Studies

摘　　要：G-W长期增长模型融合了新增长理论研发模型和人力资本模型的理论,尝试从世界经济长期增长的视角整合从马尔萨斯陷阱到现代增长的长期增长过程,实现了技术进步、人口增长和人口转型的内生化,不足之处在于无法解释世界经济长期增长过程中的结构转型和驼峰型增长。对于世界经济长期增长来说,G-W模型的政策意义在于指出了技术进步、人口转型和人力资本相互作用对于长期增长的重要影响,其中包括提升效率资源水平以促进长期增长。G-W Long-Run Growth Model intends to integrate the R&D model and human capital model to a unified growth model,which covers the process of long-run growth from Malthusian stagnation to modern growth as a whole with endogenous technology as well as population growth and demographic transition. However,as a primary but basic model,it can never explain those facts of structural change and hump-shaped growth,and result in incomplete ' unified'. For the long-run growth of world economy,G-W model implies those policies of paying important attention to the interreaction of technology,human capital and demographic transition,more than human capital independently,and raising resource efficiency to promote long-run growth of world economy.

关 键 词：长期增长 马尔萨斯陷阱 平衡增长 结构转型 人口转型 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易] F224[经济管理—世界经济]