中国的资本偏向型经济增长:1998-2007  

Capital-Biased Economic Growth in China:1998-2007

作　　者：郑东雅[1] 皮建才[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学经济学院产业经济学系 [2]南京大学经济学院经济学系

出　　处：《世界经济》2017年第5期24-48,共25页The Journal of World Economy

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(15ZDA060)的资助;中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心资助

摘　　要：1998-2007年对中国来说是比较特殊的阶段,连续数年经济增速保持在两位数以上,现有文献认为这个阶段的经济增长主要来自于要素(特别是资本)的贡献,而技术进步的贡献较少。通过考察提高资本边际产出的资本偏向型技术进步,本文认为这个阶段的经济增长是由资本从轻工业转移到重工业带来的。从理论研究来看,提高资本边际产出的资本偏向型技术进步会加快投资增长、降低消费占比以及提高经济增长速度。从经验研究来看,仅考虑资本偏向型技术进步及由此带来的影响,根据校准的参数进行模拟的人均产出增长率路径和中国的实际路径平均拟合度为75%。这意味着1998-2007年中国存在资本偏向型经济增长。The period of 1998-2007 was very special for China, during which the Chinese economy experienced the double-digit growth rates for several consecutive years. The existing literature agrees that factors of production, especially capital, played a significant role in generating such high growth rates. In contrast, this paper highlights the role of capital-biased technological progress and argues that the high growth rates were caused by the transfer of capital from the light industry to the heavy industry. Our theoret- ical results show that the capital-biased technology can accelerate the growth of investment, reduce the pro- portion of consumption, and as a result, increase the growth rate. This mechanism is confirmed by our sim- ulation - the average goodness of fit for the simulated path of per capita output growth rate is 75%. The high consistency of the theoretical prediction and the simulation result imply that, during 1998 and 2007, China experienced capital-biased economic growth.

关 键 词：资本偏向型技术进步 经济增长 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]