城镇化与老龄化对经济增长的影响研究  

On the Influence Urbanization and Population Aging Exert on Economic Growth

作　　者：朱越浦 樊晗露 黄新建[3] 

机构地区：[1]国家开发银行江西省分行,南昌330009 [2]西悉尼大学商学院 [3]南昌大学中部经济发展研究中心,南昌330031

出　　处：《统计与决策》2017年第10期99-103,共5页Statistics & Decision

摘　　要：文章基于2000—2013年我国省级面板数据,构建引入城镇化增长与人口就业增长交互项和老龄化增长与人口就业增长交互项的动态面板模型,以全国人均GDP增长率为标准将我国划分为高速增长和中高速增长两类地区,采用SYS-GMM计量方法对人口就业视角下城镇化与老龄化在全国及两类地区对经济增长的影响作用进行实证分析。研究结果表明,对全国层面而言,城镇化通过影响人口就业对经济增长产生正向拉动作用,老龄化则通过影响人口就业对经济增长产生负向阻滞作用;两类地区中,城镇化拉动经济增长的效应在中高速地区更为明显,同时该地区相应的老龄化阻滞经济增长的影响也更为严重,远高于全国地区平均水平,但在高速增长地区老龄化的阻滞作用却并不显著。Based on the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2013, this paper builds a dynamic panel model which introduces the interaction of urbanization growth and employment growth, as well as the interaction of population aging growth and employment growth. According to the Chinese growth rate of GDP per capital, the paper divides China into high-speed area and mid-speed area, and applies SYS-GMM econometrics method to make empirical analyses of the influence urbanization and population aging produce on the economic growth from the angle of employment in the above two areas and the whole country. The results suggest that as far as all China is concerned, urbanization helps promote economic growth via employment while population aging slows the growth of economy via employment. In the two areas, pulling effect of urbanization on economic growth is more obvious in the midspeed and high-speed area. Meanwhile in these areas the retardation from population aging is also more serious, and even greater than the national average, but in the high-speed area the retardation effect is not so conspicuous.

关 键 词：人口就业 城镇化 老龄化 经济增长 SYS-GMM 

分 类 号：F207[经济管理—国民经济] F202