南京市土地资源安全SD法评价研究  

Regional land resource security evaluation based on system dynamics in Nanjing City

作　　者：陈慧[1] 付光辉[2] 刘友兆[1] 邰鹏宇 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学公共管理学院,南京210095 [2]南京工业大学经济与管理学院,南京211816

出　　处：《资源科学》2017年第5期846-859,共14页Resources Science

基　　金：国家社科基金资助项目(10BJY040);"十三五"国家重点研发计划课题(2016YFC0701601-02)

摘　　要：土地资源安全是国家安全和区域安全的重要内容,保障土地资源安全是社会的迫切需求。本文以南京市为研究对象,从"压力-状态-响应"(PSR)思路出发制定区域土地资源安全评价系统框图,将土地资源安全系统分为粮食安全保障、土地经济安全、土地生态安全3个子系统。基于系统动力学,分析其与区域社会、经济和自然环境之间的相互影响关系,并进行定量化仿真模拟研究,全面揭示土地资源系统的稳定性、安全性和连续性。通过建立区域土地资源安全评价系统流图,开展SD动态仿真模拟,进而采取层次分析法进行指标权重的确定,综合评价区域土地资源安全等级。通过对设计的15种方案SD仿真模拟,得出了南京市土地资源安全战略发展最优方案,最终选择方案3、6、2、9作为南京市土地资源安全的优化模式,又以方案3为最优。本文采用Vensim PLE软件对所建立的模型进行了适合性和一致性检验。本文构建的SD仿真模型是集社会、经济、自然环境外部系统和内部结构为一体的综合性动态分析模型,能够清晰地表达出土地资源安全系统的整个关系网,可为区域土地资源安全评价特别是其在时间维度上的对比研究提供参考。Land resource security is an important part of national and regional security. Taking Nanjing as our research focus, a regional land resource security evaluation model structure was designed in accordance with Pressure-State-Response （PSR）. Based on system dynamics, land resource security points for three subsystems （food security, land economic security, land ecological security）and the relationship between regional social economy and the ecological environment were analyzed and simulated. The model can fully reveal the land resource system stability and security and continuity. Through the establishment of regional land resource security evaluation of the system flow chart, SD dynamic simulation analysis and evaluation were conducted. Fifteen kinds of schemes were designed, and the optimal scheme of land resource security strategy development was obtained through SD simulation. Vensim PLE was used for adaption and consistency checking for the established model. Option 3,6,2 and 9 were selected as the optimization mode in Nanjing, and Option 3 is optimal. The SD simulation model constructed here is a set of social, economic, environmental, external systems and internal structures as an integrated subsystem of dynamic analysis modeling, and the model is able to clearly express the entire network of land resource security system. This model will help regional land resource security evaluation, and in particular comparative study using a time dimension.

关 键 词：系统动力学 土地资源安全评价 指标体系 系统流图 南京市 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]