基于群体灰色层次模糊法的农产品冷链物流脆弱性评价研究  

Vulnerability Evaluation of Agricultural Cold Chain Logistics Based on the Group Grey Level Fuzzy Method

作　　者：刘明菲[1] 岳德洋 张欢[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2017年第3期114-119,共6页Safety and Environmental Engineering

基　　金：中国物流学会课题研究项目(2015cslkt0200306);安全预警与应急联动技术湖北省协同创新中心开放课题项目(JD20160215);武汉理工大学研究生自主创新研究基金项目(155203007)

摘　　要：农产品冷链物流运作的复杂性和外部环境的不确定性使各类农产品流通事故频发,直接导致农产品流通效率低下、运行成本高居不下,给社会经济的平稳运行和公众生活造成了诸多负面影响。运用事故致因理论,从人员、设备、环境和管理因素引发的脆弱源视角切入,构建农产品冷链物流的脆弱链模型;依据轨迹交叉模型识别农产品冷链物流运行中脆弱性的关键致因因子,并从脆弱性的暴露度、易感度和适应度三个维度构建农产品冷链物流脆弱性评价指标体系;基于群体灰色层次模糊法(GGAHP)对农产品冷链物流脆弱性进行评价,从而得到其脆弱性等级,以期为政府、企业等主体促进农产品冷链物流优化、提高运行效率、降低运作成本提供理论依据。The complexity of cold chain logistics of agricultural products and the uncertainty of external environment result in numerious accidents in the circuletion of agricultural products,which directly lead to the low efficiency of agricultural products circulation,and high operation costs.Therefore,based on the theory of accident causation,this paper establishes a fragile chain model for the cold chain logistics of agricultural products from the perspective of human,equipment,environment and management factors and identifies the key factors of the vulnerability in the cold chain logistics operation according to the track crossing model,and then constructs evaluation index system of the vulnerability for the cold chain logistics of agricultural products agricultural products from the three dimensions of the vulnerability：exposure degree,sensitivity and adaptability.At the end,the paper evaluates the vulnerability of the cold chain logistics of agricultural products based on the group grey hierarchical fuzzy evaluation method（GGAHP）to get the vulurability rank which provides a theoretical basis for promting the optimization of cold chain logistics of argricultural products operating costs of the agricultural products cold chain logistics optimization in government or enterprises.

关 键 词：农产品冷链物流 脆弱性评价 群体灰色层次模糊法 轨迹交叉模型 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]