基于Logistic-ARMA组合模型对基坑开挖过程地表沉降的预测研究  

Forecast of Surface Subsidence Induced by Foundation Pit Excavation Based on Logistic-ARMA Model

作　　者：徐青[1] 郭伟[1] 何松[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)工程学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2017年第3期160-163,共4页Safety and Environmental Engineering

摘　　要：基坑开挖对周边环境影响较大,对周边地表沉降进行预测预报是安全施工的重要手段。从沉降一般性规律出发,针对Logistic生长模型和ARMA模型对基坑开挖阶段地表沉降的预测精度低,进而提出Logistic-ARMA组合模型,并应用于工程实例。结果表明:Logistic-ARMA组合模型能降低基坑开挖过程对地表沉降预测精度的不利影响,相对单一模型具有更高的预测精度,且预测结果更为合理、可靠。As the excavation of foundation pit has a greater influence on the surrounding environment,the forecast of surface subsidence is an important means of safety construction.In view of the low accuracy of either the Logistic growth model or the ARMA model in forecast of surface subsidence during the foundation pit excavation,based on the general rules of settlement,this paper proposes a Logistic-ARMA model,and applies it in an engineering example.The results show that the combined model can mitigate the adverse effects on the forecast accuracy caused by excavation,thus has higher accuracy in compare with either single model and is more rational and reliable.

关 键 词：基坑开挖 地表沉降预测 Logistic-ARMA组合模型 

分 类 号：X948[环境科学与工程—安全科学] P642.26[天文地球—工程地质学]